Texas Tech had its ugliest showing of the 2022 season against Baylor last week. So nothing like having to turn right around, and travel to the home of the lone undefeated team in the Big 12. TCU head coach Sonny Dykes is firmly in any coach of the year conversation for his remarkable first season in Fort Worth. But as bad as it looked last week against Baylor, Texas Tech has the tools to pull off the upset. The focus for a Texas Tech week 10 upset lies during a very specific eight-minute section of the game
What Do Cacti And Texas Tech Have In Common?
Venture roughly 18 months back in time. Texas Tech had its men’s basketball coach depart for its most hated rival; the Texas Longhorns. And, boy howdy, did it sting the entire fan base. Remember how salty Oklahoma fans were this off-season when Lincoln Riley left for USC? That is the exact place where Red Raider fans were. Fast forward 10 months, when Texas Tech traveled down to Austin in basketball, there was a noted and deliberate effort to keep tickets out of the hands of Red Raider fans. Needless to say, it was unsuccessful.
That backstory was to set up why any social media page associated with Texas Tech has a cactus in the display name. In July of this year, Texas Tech officially announced The Matador Club, a local nonprofit collective, was signing the entire football roster to one-year, $25,000 NIL deals. TCU’s recruiting coordinator, Bryan Carrington, tweeted out his response (which was later deleted) which ended with the following:
The reality is that the extra 2k it’s gonna be a concrete ceiling for most players in scarce markets that are oversaturated with 85 scholarship players attempting to ‘build their brand’ in a desert…
The deleted tweet concluded with a cactus emoji. As one can imagine, the entire Red Raider fan base was quick to respond. But it also led to another ticket gate for Texas Tech fans. TCU’s athletic department did not make single-game tickets available for this game before the season started. It has also had another development within the last two weeks. TCU announced that faculty and staff members would be able to buy $20 tickets to the Texas Tech game and would also get a free ticket to the Iowa State game. TCU just was ranked seventh in the initial playoff rankings on Tuesday, but there is a decent chance TCU’s stadium looks how Notre Dame’s looked five years ago when Georgia came to town.
Fan Support Or Not; TCU Is Dangerous
If Amon G. Carter has more red than purple, fans will get to have their moment in the sun. But they can get stomped out very quickly by a very good TCU football team. This Horned Frog team appears to be very comfortable just living in a bit of chaos. They only have one victory in conference play by a margin greater than 10 points. That was the opening Big 12 game in which they ran Oklahoma out of the stadium in the first quarter and never let them back in. TCU quarterback Max Duggan has been excellent in protecting the ball this year as he only has two interceptions on the season. Running back Kendre Miller is averaging 6.4 yards per carry in Big 12 play with zero fumbles. Wide receiver Quentin Johnston is a playmaker outside the numbers and is averaging 17 yards a reception in conference play.
Eight Minutes To Mortal Wound A Horned Frog
The Middle Eight refers to the section of a football game that occurs in the last four minutes of the second quarter and the first 4 minutes of the third quarter. Winning this area of the game is a great way to build momentum heading into halftime. Teams then can parlay that into jumpstarting a great effort in the second half. For those who might think momentum is overrated consider this. According to SportSource Analytics, from 2014-2019, teams that won the Middle Eight minutes of the game at the FBS level won the game 74% of the time. During the same span, of the top 10 teams in winning percentage from the FBS, six were in the top 10 in the highest scoring differential in the Middle Eight.
If a Texas Tech week 10 victory is to be secured, the Red Raiders must win the Middle Eight. And while the noted statistics confirm that statement, it is especially true against TCU for a unique reason. The TCU defense has been below average this season. According to The Athletic, TCU ranks 75th nationally in stop rate. They also rank 89th in total defense, surrendering an average of 402.5 yards per game. The Horned Frogs also rank 73rd nationally in points allowed per game at 27.25. But they have seemingly saved their best performances for the second half of games. In Big 12 play, they are only allowing an average of 10.2 points in the second half of games (excluding overtime). Remove the shootout that broke out in Lawerence, and that average drops to just 5.75 points in the second half.
Texas Tech Quarterback Behren Morton should be better this week. The redshirt freshman struggled to get the offense out of the starting gate. He was forcing a lot of throws against Baylor. The quarterback situation remains fluid among Morton, Tyler Shough, and Donovan Smith. Red Raider head coach Joey McGuire said this week that Morton would take the first-team reps in practice. Regardless of who is taking snaps, they have to do a better job of protecting the ball. Texas Tech has thrown 15 interceptions — five more than any other Big 12 team. If the Red Raiders can protect the ball, specifically in the Middle Eight, and keep that tempo up all game, they can give TCU all they can handle.
Texas Tech Week 10 Prediction
Fox’s Big Noon crew will be in Fort Worth for this battle of the Saddle Trophy. Texas Tech currently has a three-game losing streak to the Horned Frogs. As much as the fan portion of this rivalry will generate buzz leading up to this game, it will be a story that fades quickly after the game starts if Texas Tech isn’t competitive. McGuire’s crew should be sharper on both sides of the ball this week. However, TCU appears to be unphased no matter how a game plays out. The Horned Frogs have consistently made game-winning plays down the stretch of games. Even with Texas looming on the horizon and their former head coach serving on the coaching staff, TCU hangs on to remain undefeated.
TCU 45, Texas Tech 38
