Texas Tech will welcome a new member to its ring of honor Saturday night when the Baylor Bears come to town. It will also serve as a pseudo-elimination game for a spot in the Big 12 championship game. Suffering three losses in conference play as the calendar is about to turn to November makes it nearly impossible to finish as one of the two top teams in the conference. What do the Red Raiders need to do if they hope to defend home field and secure a Texas Tech week nine victory?
Guess Who’s Back
For the first time since the opening game of the 2022 season, the Red Raiders will have all three of their starting quarterbacks available to play. Tyler Shough, who has been out of action since suffering an injury in week one, was medically cleared to play this week. Shough did participate in practice in a limited capacity last week, but could not pass all medical protocols to play in the game against West Virginia. Who starts is anyone’s guess at this point. Texas Tech head coach Joey Mcguire offered this response when asked about who the starter would be at his weekly press conference on Monday, “…when we come in Saturday, we’re planning on playing all three of them. Whoever gives us the best chance to win against Baylor is going to be the guy that starts the game.”
No Shortage Of Insider Information
McGuire should be able to help formulate a very detailed plan to exploit any potential weaknesses. After all, McGuire spent the previous five seasons on the Baylor coach staff. But it isn’t just McGuire who has recent connections to the Baylor Bears. Tight End coach Josh Cochran was a part of the Baylor coaching staff from 2017-2019. Strength coach Lance Barilow was with Baylor in 2021. Director of football operations, Quintin Jordan, spent the previous four seasons with the Bears in multiple roles. Lastly, James Blanchard, Texas Tech’s Director of Player Personnel, was Baylor’s director of recruiting in 2019 and 2020 before spending the 2021 season as assistant athletic director for scouting. When all said and done, there is a combined 17 seasons’ worth of knowledge on this Baylor program.
Don’t Be So Negative
If it is Behren Morton who starts at quarterback, there are plenty of areas for him to improve. The arm talent jumps off the screen. But in terms of progressing through his reads, he has to be quicker. “He missed a few first reads that probably would have gone for big gains, if not touchdowns,” offensive coordinator Zach Kittley said on Monday. And while his reads need to get faster, the tempo of this offense is going as fast as possible. Texas Tech leads the country in plays run per game, averaging 89 plays a game. The next closest team averages 79. One of the key factors in order for a tempo offense to work is avoiding negative-yardage plays.
A negative play requires all offensive personnel to retreat and reset before running the next play. It disrupts the rhythm tempo offense requires. Even the smallest positive-yard play naturally allows all offensive players to quickly get set as they receive the call from the coaches. It forces the opposing team to keep the same personnel on the field without being able to sub. Look at some of the recent results and how many negative plays Texas Tech suffered. In a winning effort last week, Texas Tech only had five negative-yardage plays. But in losing efforts, that number jumps significantly.
Against North Carolina State, the Red Raiders were in second-and-10 or longer 17 times. In their loss at Oklahoma State, they were in the same situation on 15 occasions. When an offense is behind the sticks 16.9% or 19.1% as the Red Raiders were in their losses to NC State and Oklahoma State, the playbook shrinks. Now defenses can easily attack knowing there is only so much an offense can do. However, if Texas Tech can live in the 5.6% range as they did against West Virginia, the Bear defense will never catch its breath.
Texas Tech Week Nine Prediction
Baylor has not won a game in Lubbock since 1990. The Red Raiders have successfully defended their house all season. They have built some momentum coming out of the mid-way point of their season after disposing of West Virginia last week. Baylor is going to be a challenge in the trenches for this Texas Tech team. Everyone should expect both offenses to move the ball and score a bunch of points. But with Patrick Mahomes in the building for his ring of honor ceremony, under the bright west Texas lights, in front of a sold-out raucous crowd, it seems like all the cards are stacked in favor of a Texas Tech week nine winning effort.
Texas Tech 45, Baylor 42
