On the first play from scrimmage five seasons ago, Amani Hooker jumped in front of JT Barrett’s first pass and gave the Hawkeyes the lead in just eight seconds. The pick-six ignited Iowa’s 55-24 rout of the Buckeyes that took place inside Kinnick Stadium the last time these two met on the football field. The Buckeyes were eying the College Football Playoff that season as the third-ranked team in the nation.
Saturday, Iowa and Ohio State will meet in similar circumstances, this time inside Ohio Stadium. The Buckeyes are undefeated and second-ranked, playing impressive football into the back half of the season. Iowa is in a similar spot to that of the 2017 season, unranked with three losses and working towards a bowl game invitation.
Heisman Quarterback and the Hawkeye Secondary
One of the most intriguing aspects of this game will be Ohio State quarterback CJ Stroud’s matchup with the Hawkeye defense. Stroud is one of the leading Heisman Trophy contenders at the mid-way point of the season. The junior has 24 passing touchdowns to just three interceptions, more than 1,700 passing yards, and leads the nation with 10.9 completion yards per attempt. Stroud is the kind of player who can single-handedly change the outcomes of games. He will be the single best player that Iowa’s defense has seen since Christian McCaffrey in the 2016 Rose Bowl.
The Hawkeye pass defense is among the best in the nation. The group allows an average of just 154 passing yards per game, third nationally. They are second nationally in pass touchdowns allowed with three, and give up an FBS-least 4.7 yards per pass attempt. Iowa also does a very good job of preventing explosive pass plays. They have given up just three pass plays of more than 30 yards on the season. That will be matched on Saturday with Ryan Day’s offense which has 19 pass plays of more than 30 yards gained, second-most nationally. The contrast of explosive play creation and prevention by the Buckeyes and Hawkeyes, respectively, will sway the outcome of this game. One side of this unique matchup will have to give. Stroud’s Heisman campaign will weigh heavily on his success, or lack thereof, against Pro Football Focus’ top-ranked pass defense.
Buckeye Balance
Passing Offense
The Ohio State offense is averaging 200 yards rushing and 300 yards passing per game this season. They are the only team to achieve those numbers at the halfway point this year. Their balance offensively with Stroud at the helm will be one of the most dynamic and explosive offenses that this Hawkeye team has seen in quite some time. The Buckeyes are currently averaging 8.0 yards per play on the season. It’s only the halfway point, but no FBS team has averaged eight or more yards per play in a season since the 2018 Oklahoma Sooners.
At his disposal, Stroud has arguably the best wide receiver duo in the nation, and his top target Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been a non-factor due to injury. Emeka Egbuka and Marvin Harrison Jr. have combined for 15 touchdowns and nearly 1,200 yards. The two have been targeted on 70% of Stroud’s pass attempts and have excellent breakaway speed and pass catching skills. The Hawkeye defense is fundamentally sound and makes very few mistakes. However, the speed of the Buckeyes on the outside and over the top could be detrimental to the secondary.
Rushing Offense
On the ground, the Buckeyes have been utilizing a two-back system with TreVeyon Henderson and Miyan Williams. It’s been a dominant first half of the year for the combination backfield, nearing 1,000 yards total with 12 touchdowns between the two. But injury has plagued each of them in the last few weeks. On October first against Rutgers, Henderson was taken out of the lineup shortly before kickoff. Williams missed the Michigan State game two Saturdays ago with an undisclosed injury. Henderson filled his absence in East Lansing and put up handsome numbers before leaving the game with an injury. Day said that Henderson was trending towards returning in that game, but didn’t due to the game being put away. Their status is quiet, but it’s sounding likely that Henderson starts against Iowa on Saturday with Williams being available if healthy. Defending two healthy tailbacks in the lineup with the receiving core in this Buckeye offense will be a monumental task. Even for this top-rated Hawkeye defense.
Path to Competition
It’s difficult to decipher a path to victory for Iowa in this trip out east to Columbus. The Hawkeye offense has struggled mightily all season for a variety of reasons. Ohio State’s defense has taken a major step up since last year with the hiring of former Oklahoma State defensive coordinator Jim Knowles. The group is allowing just 4.3 yards per play on the year, compared to 5.1 in 2021. That’s a jump from 35th to seventh best in the FBS. Iowa’s offense will continue to struggle in this environment against this kind of defense.
If there’s a path to competition, it has to begin with limiting explosive plays defensively. For Iowa to stay competitive in this road matchup, the defense has to force tough throws and limit big plays. Iowa’s defense has been asked to do a lot this season, and they have. This will be their toughest task, but Stroud has thrown an interception in each of his last three games. A turnover or a defensive score early could give Iowa a much needed boost of momentum to keep this thing close. Otherwise, Ohio State is capable of putting this away early with their scoring potential.
Iowa’s Monumental Task at Ohio State
Kirk Ferentz is 1-4 against top five teams on the road in his tenure at Iowa. The lone victory came at Penn State in 2009. He has never won inside Ohio Stadium in five attempts as the Iowa head coach, but not many coaches do.
Saturday will be the 10th time Iowa enters a matchup against Ohio State as underdogs in 11 total meetings under Ferentz. In the last four meetings, Iowa is 3-0-1 against the spread, with an outright win in 2017. This time, however, Iowa is a 29-point underdog, and Ohio State has had the 2017 game on its mind for five years. Even with a Penn State road trip looming, there is no sense of this being a look-ahead matchup for the Buckeyes. They are fully aware of the 55 points Iowa laid on them in their last meeting. It will not be surprising to see Ohio State have its foot on the gas for the full 60 minutes of play.
This week, the point spread model makes Iowa a 21.9-point underdog in Columbus. It’s high on Iowa’s defense which has been impressive in defending the pass this season. The outright win is unlikely, but with some stops and a turnover or two, Iowa can create an edge to potentially cover the large, four-touchdown spread.
