In hindsight, the idea that Farmagedon would result in anything less than a rock fight with few points seems too obvious. But, nonetheless, we missed that total (and most). As bad as the total picks were, it was the complete opposite picking winners and against the spread. Overall, last week’s picks were 3-1 Straight up, 3-0-1 ATS, and 1-3 on the totals. There are some interesting numbers in the Big 12 week seven winners to navigate. As always, all lines and totals are courtesy of BetMGM.
Season Straight up: 31-11
Season ATS: 19-14-2
Season Totals: 15-20
Big 12 Week Seven Winners
Baylor (-3.5) At West Virginia
Both teams had a bye week to get rested and prepared for this Thursday night battle in Morgantown. Baylor is unquestionably the better team coming into this one, but what is it exactly our friends in the desert are telling us with Baylor only being a field goal favorite? We know that West Virginia’s offense has not been the issue all year. The Mountaineers are averaging 38.2 points per game, which is good for 23rd in the nation. And Baylor has never won in Morgantown, ever.
However, this Baylor offense has kept growing with the emergence of quarterback Blake Shapen. Dave Aranda’s defense has its own impressive streak coming into this one. Dating back to last year, the Bears’ defense has not allowed more than 30 to any opponent in 18 straight games. With the additional prep time coming into this one, Baylor should be able to weather the storm of a tough road environment.
Straight Up: Baylor ATS: Baylor Total 54.5: Over
Kansas (+9.5) At Oklahoma
The biggest news out of Kansas right now is the health of quarterback Jalon Daniels. On Tuesday, it was reported that his shoulder injury sustained last week against TCU was a season-ender. However, Daniels refuted that story on Twitter later in the day. But it is clear he will be unavailable this week, so it will be Jason Bean’s show as they travel to Norman to take on a reeling Oklahoma team. Because of this factor, this game of all of the Big 12 week seven winners is the hardest to get a real pulse on. It is clear there is something magical happening in Kansas this year. And there is no doubt, Oklahoma is as down as it’s ever been in over two decades.
However, head coach Brent Venables has said he expects quarterback Dillion Gabriel to be back this week. Gabriel is the offensive conducted this Sooner teams need to be competitive against any Big 12 team. Oklahoma’s defensive issues will, at best, have marginal improvement at home against a Kansas offense that is predicated on getting opposing defenses out of position. Because Bean is not the same playmaker Daniels is, Oklahoma wins this shootout late in the fourth at home.
Straight Up: Oklahoma ATS: Kansas Total 62.5: Over
Iowa State (+16) At Texas
A hat tip to the folks at The Solid Verbal, but this is a textbook let-down look-ahead sandwich for Texas. The Longhorns just got done absolutely trouncing their biggest rival. Next week, they have to travel to Stillwater to square off against Oklahoma State. This 11 am local kickoff just screams of a sleepy start for the Longhorns.
There is little doubt Texas should win this game, even though they have struggled with Iowa State lately. It wouldn’t be a shock to see this as a one-score game at halftime. However, even against a great defense, Texas will score enough to avoid the upset, but not cover the number.
Straight Up: Texas ATS: Iowa State Total 49.5: Over
Oklahoma State (+4) At TCU
Of all the Big 12 week seven winners, and really of any game to date, this is the one that has the biggest implication on the Big 12 race. Both of these teams love to sling the ball all over the field. Oklahoma State ranks 17th and TCU ranks 21st in passing offense. They both also play with their foot down on the gas. TCU ranks 61st and Oklahoma State ranks 120th in time of possession. This high-stakes matchup will likely take four hours to play, and that is without any overtime.
No doubt that Sonny Dykes has quickly maximized a talented TCU roster in his first year as head coach. However, in what projects to be about a 37-33 game, the Cowboy’s experience will be the difference. Mike Gundy has a history of thriving when his team is in an underdog role. Last Word certainly doesn’t view the Pokes as an underdog, but it still is a very challenging road spot. Expect Spencer Sanders’ sound decision-making to keep up (only has two turnovers in five games) and Oklahoma State to remain perfect leaving Fort Worth.
Straight Up: Oklahoma State ATS: Oklahoma State Total 68.5: Over
