Excitement is high for this rivalry game between Texas and Texas Tech. Even coming off a fairly deflating loss, the fan base will show out for this game. Literally. The official sell-out announcement came on Monday by the Red Raider athletic department. This is Tech’s first registered sellout since the Texas and Oklahoma games of 2018. Head Coach Joey McGuire has the challenge of needing to get his team prepared to face another team with more (on paper) talent. It is also the third consecutive team the Red Raiders have faced ranked in the AP top-25. When the season ends, looking back at the Texas Tech week four result likely will be the defining game on just how successful the 2022 Red Raider season is.
Defense Should Not Be An Issue
Texas Tech and defense are typically not words associated with each other. But it’s obvious that defensive coordinator Tim DeRuyter has already had a major impact on that side of the ball. Texas Tech ranks 28th nationally in total defense, yielding only 293.7 yards to opposing offenses. The Red Raiders also rank 33rd nationally in third-down conversation percentage (30%). Opponents have scored less than 30 points for six consecutive games, dating back to 2021. This is the Red Raider’s longest such streak since doing so over seven-straight games during the 2007-08 seasons.
The stingy defensive efforts start with edge defender Tyree Wilson. Wilson is coming off the best performance of his Red Raider career. He logged a career-high for tackles (11), and tackles for loss (3.5) against N.C. State. It was the first time since Jordyn Brooks in the 2019 season that a Red Raider recorded 3.5 tackles for loss in a game.
Prime Cut Offense
There is no doubt the Red Raider defense is facing its toughest test to date. Bijan Robinson is an All-American caliber running back. Xavier Worthy is an All-American caliber wide receiver. And while its clear the Texas offense runs at its peak with Quinn Ewers throwing the football, the offense still has plenty of talent to erupt. Don’t forget, Texas hung 70 on the Red Raiders just one year ago.
The defense is dealing with its own bit of adversary though. Lineback Bryce Ramirez is recovering from his second surgery on his injured leg. Ramirez fractured his lower left leg against North Carolina State in the first half. When the junior tackled Wolfpack running back Jordan Houston, Ramirez’s leg, which was planted in the turf, was rolled up. The leg bent below the knee and was twisted abnormally. It was a horrific injury that will sideline him for the remainder of the season.
Failure To Launch
Texas Tech gave its fans a slight taste of Zach Kittley’s offense in week one against Murray State. But since then, the offense has not had sustainable rhythm and flow from quarter to quarter much less an entire game. Is this the week, a Texas Tech week four rivalry showdown, when the Air Raid operation is functioning at a high level? Of course, there are the faint cries of “but, but they are ranked 4th nationally in passing offense.” Yes, this is true. Texas Tech is averaging 373.7 passing yards per game. But they are only ranked 60th in passing efficiency. Quarterback Donovan Smith has had moments of excellence in this offense. But they are just that, moments.
Smith has yet to have a game this year with over 300 passing yards. One of the areas where the offense is struggling is the lack of a consistent threat to break a big play. There is not a go-to receiving currently in this offense. Four different receivers are averaging between 3.0-3.5 receptions a game. Comparatively, Kittley’s Western Kentucky offense had three receivers who averaged at least 5 receptions a game, with their leading receiver averaging a whopping 10.7 receptions per game. It is clear that Texas Tech, for as much as they are moving the ball in the air, cannot consistently sustain drives.
Operation Air Raid
For as much talent is in this backfield, the rushing attack has been sputtering. Texas Tech is only averaging 101.7 yards per game, best for last in the conference and 115tth nationally. This has led to inconsistency in scoring. Since the Murray State game, Texas Tech only has had one instance of scoring on consecutive offensive possessions. That was in overtime against Houston. Texas is gettable in the secondary. The Longhorns rank 68th nationally in passing defense. And for as well as the defense played against Alabama, they still only rank 64th nationally in quarterback sacks per game. Texas Tech’s offensive line has struggled to keep Smith protected.
But in order to spring an upset, the offensive line just has to give Smith a chance. As much as it seems like Kittley’s offense would just take off without a hiccup, it is still a new coaching staff implementing a new system. Against the Longhorns, an opening drive with lots of throws on time and sustaining tempo throughout the drive can lay the foundation for this offense to finally take off. It also will require Smith and this receiving corps to make big plays. The NC State game just felt like an endless supply of out routes and hitches against a stingy defense. These big-bodied receivers need a few opportunities down the field to go up and make a play to inject some life into this offense.
Texas Tech Week Four Prediction
The atmosphere at The Jones will be electric. Michael Crabtree returns to Lubbock to be recognized for his upcoming induction into the college football hall of fame. He will be honored during Saturday’s game with a Hall of Fame plaque. The two-time Biletnikoff Award winner and recent inductee into the Texas Tech Ring of Honor will become the sixth Red Raider in program history to be inducted into the College Football Hall of Fame. It also isn’t lost on anyone that Crabtree was playing for the Red Raiders the last time Texas Tech beat the Longhorns in Lubbock.
Texas knows that the Red Raiders will be up for this game. The first half of this game should be tightly contested. In three combined games, Texas is only beating its opponents 17-16 in the first quarter of games. However, Texas has only allowed three combined points to all of its opponents so far this season. It’s also the quarter the Longhorns have scored their most points. The Longhorn staff appears to make some great adjustments at halftime, and that should be the case here. A late push by the Red Raiders in the fourth quarter brings a little false hope to a comeback before Texas salts it away.
Texas 35, Texas Tech 24
