College football is slowly approaching. Media days for all the conferences will kick off in July. Fall camps will get rolling in August. And before we know it, opening weekend will be here. The Big 12 very well could be the most competitive conference week-in and week-out. The blueblood programs of the Big 12 are not leaps and bounds better than everyone else. For that matter, those two blueblood programs who won’t be around much long didn’t even play in the conference championship game last year. With a conference without much separation, there is real value with some of the Big 12 win totals that have now been posted. The totals for each team are provided by BetMGM.
2022 Big 12 Win Totals
Baylor: Over/under 7.5 wins
The defending Big 12 champions are not getting much respect from the odds makers in Vegas. (somewhere Roddy Dangerfield is adjusting his collar). After all, the Bears had six players drafted have a new starting quarterback. That said, Baylor is the strongest team in the trenches on both sides of the ball. They only lost one contributor between the offensive and defensive lines, which includes the best offensive linemen in the conference. Of all the Big 12 win totals, this is one of the more head-scratching numbers. Baylor might not defend their title this year, but it is hard to see a 12-win team regressing that much. The Pick: Over 7.5
Iowa State: Over/under 6.5 wins
Iowa State was primed to have a truly historic season in 2021. Coming off a nine-win 2020 campaign, and all its key contributors back, expectations reached “sleeper Big 12 championship” levels. Instead, Iowa State came well short of those expectations and simply had another average season under Matt Campbell. For context, Iowa State has won at least seven games in the last five consecutive seasons. Prior to this streak, 1976-1978 is the only other stretch longer than two seasons in which the Cyclones have won at least seven games. Make no mistake, Iowa State is in its greatest stretch in program history. But after losing so many veteran and star players, this is a team that is very much in a transition year. Iowa State will be a tough out for anyone in the conference, but the seven-win streak ends this year. The Pick: Under 6.5
Kansas: Over/under 2.5
For the last 82 years (ok really only 13), Kansas winning any football game meant the opposing team was instantly turned into a meme. No Kansas joke has hit harder though than when the Jayhawks went down to Austin last year and beat Texas in overtime. But that game symbolized something; Lance Leipold is building this program up. In 2022, Kansas is not going to win the conference. But this will be the first year where Kansas jumping up and getting a few more teams/staying competitive will not be looked at with a shocked face. This program still has a massive mountain to climb to get out of the basement permanently, but the Jayhawks’ arrow is pointing up. The Pick: Over 2.5
Kansas State: Over/under 6.5 wins
Baylor might have the most head-scratcher of Big 12 win totals, but Kansas State’s is just as odd. In the last 12 seasons, Kansas State has won less than seven games only twice (one of which being a Covid shortened 2020 season). The Wildcats have one of the best offensive skill players, not just in the conference, but in the country. The non-conference schedule does include Mizzou, but at worst, they will go 2-1 in their non-conference portion of the schedule. Transfer quarterback Adrian Martinez brings some real playmaking abilities to the quarterback position (as well as some real turnover concerns). If there was one team to be considered a lock against the number, the Wildcats are the one to take to the bank. The Pick: Over 6.5
Oklahoma: Over/under 9.5 wins
In the last 20 seasons, excluding a shortened 2020 season, Oklahoma has won less than nine games three times (all three were eight-win seasons). But the Sooners are in unknown territory. The departure of their head coach to USC left the team and fanbase rattled. And while bringing home a familiar face to fill his shoes has been received with much praise, new head coach Brent Venables still is a first-time head coach. The roster had plenty of departures via the NFL draft and the transfer portal, but they still boast one of the most (on-paper) talented rosters in the conference. The Sooners will still find themselves in the top third of the conference, but to expect 10-wins in year one is just a tad too much. The Pick: Under 9.5
Oklahoma State: Over/under 8.5 wins
Oklahoma State’s biggest concern isn’t with the roster. It’s amongst the coaching staff. A top-five nationally ranked defense is bringing on a new defensive coordinator, Derek Mason after Jim Knowles took the same position at Ohio State. Even with some changes coming to the defensive scheme, this is a veteran Cowboy team that should contend to get back to the Big 12 championship game. Two of its three toughest opponents do come on the road, but with a very real path to be 7-0 in Stillwater this year, it won’t be hard for the Pokes to find at least two wins on the road. The Pick: Over 8.5
TCU: Over/under 6.5
In the last two decades, TCU had a reputation of always having a tough defense. However, in what would be the final year for tenured coach Gary Patterson, the defense was an absolute disaster. TCU’s new head coach did not even need to move houses to take the job as Sonny Dykes brings his high-flying offensive attack from SMU. This is a program that has all the pieces to take hold of the new-look Big 12 in the coming years. But this isn’t the year they do it. Too many questions on both sides of the ball with a coaching change mean TCU will be struggling to get to bowl eligibility. The Pick: Under 6.5
Texas: Over/under 8.5 wins
Texas just won the month of June with the recent commitment by the highest-ranked player in the 2023 class. Perhaps you have heard of his family? And while that is quite a win for the Longhorns, they have the seconded highest Big 12 win totals in the 10-member league. This suggests they are ready to jump back to the top of the conference this year. The offense is loaded with playmakers all over the field. If they get just average play from the quarterback position, this offense will be potent. The biggest concern is what is going to be done defensively to shore up that side of the ball? Coming off a five-win season, improving to eight wins would be a big jump. However, that number won’t cover Vegas’ mark or likely Longhorn fans’ expectations. The Pick: Under 8.5
Texas Tech: Over/under 5.5
The Red Raiders are going to be appointment television. No, they aren’t winning the Big 12 in Joey McGuire’s first year at the helm. But there is plenty of optimism in the program. It will start offensively as Zach Kittley’s air raid-style attack will be lots of fun to watch. The secondary of this defense is quietly one of the better units in the conference. This season will be punctuated by an upset win over one of the top three teams in the conference. Overall roster talent and depth do vary by position group, so they certainly can lose to anyone in the conference. But this team will do just enough to get back to a bowl game for consecutive seasons for the first time since 2012-2013. The Pick: Over 5.5
West Virginia: Over/under 5.5
Neil Brown enters the season firmly on the hot seat. The non-conference schedule does him no favors either. Week one on the road against the defending ACC champs and revival of the Backyard Brawl. Week four is a trip to Blacksburg on a Thursday night to take on Virginia Tech. They then get Texas and Baylor in consecutive weeks. A realistic 2-4 start to the season could make for the end of the Brown era at West Virginia. Even if they start 3-3, the last three weeks of the season have them squaring off against Oklahoma, Kansas State, and Oklahoma State. Mountaineer fans are in from some rough stretches this season. The Pick: Under 5.5
