A Texas Tech week 6 homecoming win unearths a familiar game plan. TCU is coming to Lubbock having lost two straight games to currently ranked opponents (#24 SMU and #21 Texas). If the Red Raiders are going to build a winning streak in the Big XII, the key to victory will be the ability to stop TCU running back Zach Evans.
2nd Attempt To Stop Future First Round Running Back
The Red Raider defense already faced off against the number one nationally ranked running back from the 2020 class in Bijan Robinson. It was no secret that Robinson was going to see plenty of touches, and if the Red Raiders were to win in Austin they had to stop him. Well, Robinson got his Heisman campaign back on track against Texas Tech and the defense was sent back to the drawing board.
Now this defense faces off against the number two ranked running back from the 2020 class. One thing, at least according to TCU head coach Gary Patterson, Evans will not see the volume that Robinson had against the Horned Frogs just a week early:
“I would never do 35 carries like they did for the guy at Texas [Robinson] if you want to last four years…[Evans] does need more touches, though.”
– Credit: Colin Post, Frogs O’ War
Good news for the Big XII, Evans almost certainly will only be around for one more season next year. But, focusing on the here and now, Patterson realizes he needs to get his best player the ball more. Currently, Evans is averaging just a tad under 20 combined touches a game. Most of his work does come from rushing the ball as he has had no less than 15 carries against power five opponents. So far, no one has really been able to slow Evans down. He is averaging 7.8 yards a carry and has no less than 113 yards in a game in his last three games.
Limited Evans Disrupts Entire Offensive Game script
Evans isn’t the only TCU player who gets his fair share of rushing attempts. TCU quarterback Max Duggan is averaging 15 carries a game. Now, he isn’t exactly scaring defense with his rushing ability, averaging only 2.97 yards per carry. But when the defense cannot stop Evans, it leaves Duggan key opportunities to keep the chains moving. It keeps the offense on the field and can wear out the defense late into the game. The Horned Frogs’ passing attack is ranked 62nd in the country averaging only 236.2 yards a game.
However, they are averaging 13.31 yards per completion (38th best in the country). TCU wants to establish a rushing attack to set up their passing game. TCU is averaging 197 rushing yards per game, which ranks 31st in the nation. Expecting a senior defense to completely lock down Evans would be unrealistic. But if Texas Tech can limit Evans to 4.5 yards per carry, it forces TCU into obvious passing situations. Duggan would no longer have all 11 sets of eyes on defense focused on Evans. Forcing the game into Duggan’s hands is the best way a Texas Tech week 6 victory can be secured.
Texas Tech Week 6 Prediction
Texas Tech is coming back to the friendly confines of Jones AT&T stadium after a gritty win over West Virginia. TCU has its back to the wall. If they are going to salvage the season, falling to 2-3 with Oklahoma on deck is not an option. A win over the Horned Frogs puts the Red Raiders in a great position to possibly get to 7-1 before closing out October against the Sooners. Is this the moment Texas Tech, even with so many starters injured, turns the proverbial corner? With a night game and a blackout on deck, the crowd should be the deciding factor. Texas Tech alumni will not be disappointed this homecoming weekend as the Red Raiders win their first game against TCU in Lubbock since 2013.
Texas Tech 31, TCU 30
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