Don’t look now, but Morgantown holds the No. 1 scoring defense in the nation. To be sure, some predicted a vastly improved defense, including us. But nobody (well, except for cornerback Hakeem Bailey) predicted them to be this good. This Saturday, that defense will face a stiff test, as the twelfth-ranked Mountaineers enter their first Top 25 matchup in Lubbock. After a season-opening loss to Mississippi, Texas Tech has won three straight, including a convincing 41-17 road win over Oklahoma State. The Red Raiders return to Lubbock ranked 25th in the nation, predictably fielding a Top 10 offense that will challenge the Mountaineers.
The Red Raiders’ Offense
Earlier this week, Dana Holgorsen told the media that the Mountaineers’ improved defensive line would be critical this weekend. Holgorsen said, “We’ve got to pressure the quarterback. We’ve got a plan and I’m looking forward to seeing us execute it.” Defensive Coordinator Tony Gibson’s unit dialed up routine pressure against Kansas State last weekend, but Skylar Thompson was often able to evade that pressure.
While Texas Tech’s offensive line has played well, expect Gibson to test that line more than it has been so far. Fortunately, Texas Tech’s starting quarterback Alan Bowman is not nearly as mobile as Thompson. Bowman, a freshman, will also face the Mountaineers’ unique 3-3-5 base defense for the first time. If the Mountaineers can disrupt Bowman early, then West Virginia can limit the Red Raiders’ offensive potency.
Absent such pressure, however, the Red Raiders can score in bunches. They certainly have plenty of weapons. Bowman has completed over 70% of his passes and has ten touchdowns to two interceptions. Texas Tech’s receiving corps is deep, with four players, Antoine Wesley, Ja’Deion High, T.J. Vasher, and Seth Collins averaging over ten yards per reception. The duo of Wesley and High have combined for 55 receptions, 812 yards, and 6 touchdowns. Collectively, the Texas Tech passing attack leads the country in yards per game.
The Red Raiders’ run game has been effective as well. Though it ranks only 56th in terms of yards per game, usage, rather than efficiency, dictates that ranking. Their top two backs, Ta’Zhawn Henry and Demarcus Felton, both average over five yards per carry. Da’Leon Ward has been banged up early this season. In limited time, however, he also averages over five yards per carry on seventeen attempts.
The Red Raiders’ Defense
On the other hand, the Texas Tech defense has been porous. It has surrendered nearly 440 yards per game with 285 through the air. Those numbers rank 106th and 110th in the country, respectively. The Red Raiders also give up over 150 rushing yards a game, good for 67th, at an average clip of 4.6 yards per carry. As a result, Texas Tech gave up 47 points to Mississippi and 49 points to Houston.
Last weekend, however, the Red Raiders held an Oklahoma State team fresh off of a 44 point performance against Boise State to only seventeen points. More impressively, perhaps, the Red Raiders held the ball for over 41 minutes. Head Coach Kliff Kingsbury attributes that success, in large part, to the return of veteran playmaker Jah’Shawn Johnson, who, Kingsbury said, limited Oklahoma State’s big plays. The Red Raiders also benefit from the disruptive presence of Tony Jones, who leads the team in tackles for losses and sacks, and Dakota Allen, who leads the team in tackles. Adrian Frye has also been opportunistic, turning in one defensive touchdown on three interceptions.
For the bad, however, the Red Raiders are currently fourteenth in the nation in third-down conversion percentage defense, surrendering first downs on less than 28% of third down plays. That said, Texas Tech opponents have still picked up plenty of first downs (81 in total), good enough for 87th in the nation.
The Prediction
Pressure. If the Mountaineers can exert a bunch of it early in the game, they can build a quick lead and sustain. If they cannot, then the game may be a shootout, with both teams eclipsing the 40-point barrier. West Virginia has not, however, hit the over against a Power 5 team yet this year. Vegas set the over/under for this game at 77. Look for that streak to continue, with the Mountaineers managing yet another surprising defensive performance. The Mountaineers will extend their 4-game winning streak against Texas Tech with a 41-14 victory. And the Mountaineers will continue to perfect the art of celebration.
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