World #1 Aryna Sabalenka and world #3 Elena Rybakina will clash in the final of the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells. This is the latest installment of a thrilling rivalry and a rematch of the 2026 Australian Open final, where Rybakina edged out. Both players arrive in peak form. Sabalenka has not dropped a set all week, while Rybakina has won 12 straight matches against top-10 opponents. Will the Kazakh make it three wins in a row in this matchup, or will the Belarusian take revenge?
WTA Indian Wells Final Prediction
Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina
Head-to-head: Sabalenka 8-7 Rybakina
Sabalenka is in her third BNP Paribas Open final and will be hoping that third time is the charm. She displayed another high level of tennis in the semifinals, and it took some clutch serving from Linda Noskova to make the scoreline respectable. Sabalenka hit 11 aces in the match, which is her highest this season. Sabalenka will be looking to avenge not only the Australian Open final loss but also the 2023 Indian Wells final loss.
Rybakina is back in another big final after a short dip in form and will be looking to win her second title here. She defeated Elina Svitolina in the semifinals, and with that win, she will be ranked No.2 in the world next week, irrespective of the result in the final. Rybakina dropped a set in her opening match of the tournament and has since been outstanding. She has a 4-1 win-loss record against Sabalenka in finals and will back herself to win again and even the head-to-head.
Sabalenka knows that Rybakina is the only player who can outhit her when playing well, and she will need to be at her best to win this match. Having lost four finals in a row against Rbyakina, the Belarusian would be dialled in from the start. The conditions are slower here than in the previous two encounters between these two, which should give Sabalenka a better chance of returning Rybakina’s serve with depth. However, Sabalenka has to make Rybakina run and avoid her hitting zones. This should be close, as it always is between these two, but the top seed might just have the edge.
Prediction: Sabalenka in 3
Main photo credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images
