Day 9 of the Australian Open will see the end of the fourth round. By the end of play Tuesday, our quarterfinal lineup will be set. But who will be the final four men to reach the quarterfinals? As always, our writers here at LastWordOnTennis will share their thoughts on all the matches. Predicting these matches are Zain Mustafa, Yesh Ginsburg, Shane Black, and Ilemona Onekutu. Who do you think will advance?
Australian Open Day 9 Men’s Predictions
Lorenzo Musetti vs Taylor Fritz
Zain:
A clash between two Top 10 players in the world before the quarterfinals is always a delight, as we get Taylor Fritz’s big serve and counterpunching game up against Lorenzo Musetti’s variety and defense. While this is a matchup in which either player should have openings, with Musetti looking to make it more physical and Fritz relying on rushing the Italian, on a faster hard-court surface I give the American the edge.
Prediction: Fritz in 5
Yesh:
Darderi is playing really well, but he’s still more comfortable on slower and clay courts than quicker courts. Fritz, meanwhile, thrives on faster courts. I would expect the American to eventually find his range and pull away.
Prediction: Fritz in 4
Shane:
An absolute blockbuster fourth round matchup features, in my mind, two of the top six players in the sport. Fritz has looked vulnerable in 2026, and Musetti is coming off a five-set marathon agains Machac. The baseline rallies will be high-quality. I think the American wins this with his serve and fitness.
Prediction: Fritz in 5
Ilemona:
Musetti’s path to the second week has been marked by improved patience, using variation and height to draw errors rather than forcing the issue. Fritz, meanwhile, has looked ruthless on serve and forehand, shortening points and denying opponents rhythm. On a hard court where first-strike tennis carries extra weight, that balance tips slightly toward Fritz.
Prediction: Fritz in 4
Jannik Sinner vs Luciano Darderi
Zain:
Was he lucky regarding the heat rule in the last round? Arguably. But that should still be the most Jannik Sinner is challenged in Melbourne before at least the quarters, as against Luciano Darderi he will simply have too many options and weapons to use, especially on this surface.
Prediction: Sinner in 3
Yesh:
Sinner is just too powerful to really be tested in this one. I don’t think Darderi can do too much to cause him problems.
Prediction: Sinner in 3
Shane:
Sinner houdinied himself out of the third round. While some may see this as a red flag going forward, I see it as the field missing out on the only chance they had of taking out the Italian. Darderi, in his first Slam second week, will feel the suffocation of his countryman’s baseline play early and often.
Prediction: Sinner in 3
Ilemona:
Sinner was tested by the elements in the last round but beyond that he has cruised through the draw, striking the ball cleanly and barely allowing matches to drift into extended physical battles. Darderi has impressed with his composure and forehand authority, but he’s yet to face sustained depth and pace of this level. Once rallies move beyond neutral, Sinner’s consistency should take over.
Prediction: Sinner in 3
Ben Shelton vs Casper Ruud
Zain:
Arguably the most exciting men’s singles match of the day pits Ben Shelton’s big serve and lefty angles up against Casper Ruud’s consistency from the baseline and heavy forehand. Serving will be key, as the player who makes more first serves should have a decisive edge in dictating the tempo of rallies. If Ruud stays aggressive, he can get a positive result here, but as things stand, Shelton should enter as the favourite, even if only slightly.
Prediction: Shelton in 5
Yesh:
I just can’t feel confident in Shelton here. Ruud looks rejuvenated and ready to challenge for Slam later rounds again. This is not the Casper Ruud of 2025; it’s the one that reached three Grand Slam finals. I just don’t think Shelton will be able to hit through the Norwegian’s defense or answer the counterpunches.
Prediction: Ruud in 4
Shane:
Shelton knows how to win in Melbourne. The American is 14-3 in his Australian Open career and has yet to drop a set this week. Ruud has also looked in-form in Melbourne. If he can get the point started, he’ll have an opportunity to do some damage. That said, Shelton is averaging nearly six aces per set this tournament. Breakers will be in abundance.
Prediction: Shelton in 4
Ilemona:
Shelton’s tournament has been defined by explosive serving and confidence on the forehand, allowing him to control matches from the outset. Ruud has looked solid and efficient, absorbing pressure well, but hard courts still limit his ability to turn defense into offense against big servers. If Shelton maintains his serving level, he dictates too many points.
Prediction: Shelton in 5
Novak Djokovic vs Jakub Mensik
[Editor’s Note: After this article was posted Mensik withdrew from the match.]
Zain:
Not only did Novak Djokovic reach 400 match wins at the four Majors by winning the third round, he also secured his 70th Slam second week, also a record. Up against Jakub Mensik, who has played some of his most consistent tennis at a Slam so far, Djokovic will need to step up his return game and capitalise on any opportunity he gets. This might get tricky, but he should still have enough to advance.
Prediction: Djokovic in 4
Yesh:
Djokovic has lost to Mensik before, but that was a very different situation. Djokovic looks locked in and he’s still healthy. The wear and tear of a Major will get to him soon, but not yet. I think the all-time great sends a message with a dominant win.
Prediction: Djokovic in 3
Shane:
It feels like we are witnessing Djokovic’s last stand in search of Grand Slam No. 25. He looks rejuvenated and, as always, confident. Mensik has played well in Melbourne but the 20-year-old will have limited answers against the vet.
Prediction: Djokovic in 3
Ilemona:
Djokovic has quietly built momentum through the opening rounds, keeping his error count low and tightening the screws as matches progress rather than peaking early. Mensik’s run has been eye-catching, particularly behind his serve and willingness to step inside the baseline, but sustaining that aggression against Djokovic’s returning and elastic defense is a different order of difficulty.
Prediction: Djokovic in 4
Main Photo Credit: Mike Frey-Imagn Images
