It’s time for the quarterfinals at WTA Adelaide. Five of the top ten seeds have advanced, and the only match without a top seed still features a top 40 player in the World. Two matches feature players who have never met before in competition, while the other two feature budding rivalries. Here are our best bets for these matches. Please share yours in the comments section.
WTA Adelaide
Birrell – Cristian: Time 16:30
H2H: 1-1
Kimberly Birrell and Jaqueline Cristian will play for the third time in their careers, with the series tied up at one apiece. Cristian won their 2025 French Open first-round match, but Birrell took their 2024 WTA Hobart qualifying match on a hardcourt. What makes this match interesting to me is the surface of play. Cristian can play on a hardcourt, but it’s not her strength. She’s only 123-97 on a hardcourt in her career. Birrell, for comparison, is 214-151 in her career.
Best Bet to Make
The books have Cristian as a .75-point favorite. I disagree with this. I won’t deny that Cristian is a better player at this point in her career, but Birrell is no slouch. She’s 8-2 in her last ten matches, and Cristian is 7-3. Birrell beat Marketa Vondrousova and Anastasia Potapova in her last two matches, and Cristian has beaten Darya Kasatkina, Anastasia Potapova, and Ekaterina Alexandrova in her last three matches.
That being said, Birrell winning is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/the best odds: Birrell winning @2.51 @Pinnacle
Shnaider – Navarro: Time 20:30
H2H: 2-1
Diana Shnaider and Emma Navarro have three previous matches, all of which were played in 2024. Navarro took their Wimbledon third-round match, but Shnaider took their semifinal WTA Bad Homburg match, and their WTA Paris final match. This will be their first hardcourt match, as the other three featured two played on grass and one on clay. This year, Shnaider is 3-1, and Navarro is 2-1.
Best Bet to Make
Shnaider is listed as the favorite in this match, and I agree. Not only did she have the better loss this year, losing to Madison Keys as opposed to Navarro losing to Francesca Jones, but she’s also a slightly better hardcourt player. Navarro is also coming off a fairly mediocre year for her, and she had an inferior end to the year, making matters worse. I would take Shnaider straight up for 1.84 on Unibet.
That being said, Shnaider winning is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/the best odds: Shnaider winning @1.84 @Unibet
Andreeva – Joint: Time 00:00
H2H: 0-0
Mirra Andreeva vs Maya Joint is my favorite match of the day. These two are relatively close in age, and the expectations surrounding both are pretty high. Andreeva is off to a great start in 2026, going 3-1, with her only loss coming to Marta Kostyuk. Maya Joint is 2-2, but her losses were to Iga Swiatek and Barbora Krejcikova. Joint is 7-3 in her last ten. Andreeva is 6-4 in her last ten.
Best Bet to Make
Andreeva is nearly a 5-1 favorite, and I don’t agree with those odds. I think Andreeva will win, but 5-1? I guess we’ll see. What it really comes down to for the books is their individual career records on a hardcourt. Andreeva is 74-28, but Joint is 77-47. That said, she went 30-19 on a hardcourt last year; it’s just that Andreeva was 24-9. Give me Andreeva in two sets.
That being said, Andreeva winning 2:0 is a value bet for sure
Value bet/best odds: Andreeva winning @1.59 @1xBet
Mboko – Keys: Time 18:00
H2H: 0-0
Victoria Mboko vs Madison Keys is our featured match of the day. Both women are 3-1 on the year. Keys lost to Aryna Sabalenka in straight sets, and Mboko lost to Elise Mertens, but she took her match to a third set. Both women had a phenomenal 2025. Keys won the Australian Open and this tournament. She also took home the Charlotte Invitational. Mboko took home seven titles, but only two were WTA-level.
Best Bet to Make
There is a strong reason that Keys is the favorite in this match. She won here in Adelaide in 2025. Mboko was 26-7 in hardcourt matches in 2025. Keys was 24-6 in hardcourt matches last year. The books see Keys as the favorite by almost a full point. There’s still value to be had by betting on Keys, but I think it’s smarter to bet on the underdog just in case. Mboko can be had for 2.5 on William Hill, and that’s the route I would recommend.
That being said, Mboko winning is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/the best odds: Mboko winning @2.5 @WilliamHill
Main Photo Credit: Geoff Burke–USA TODAY Sports
