The WTA Hong Kong action has now reached the semifinals. Here are my best bets for the matches later today. Please let me know in the comments if you agree with our picks. Top seed Belinda Bencic lost to Cristina Bucsa, ending her hopes for winning two tournaments in a row. Fernandez’s quest for a second title at Hong Kong is alive and well, as she reaches her third semifinal here in a row. Please share your thoughts in the comments.
WTA Hong Kong
Mboko – Fernandez: Time 08:30
H2H: 0-0
Victoria Mboko and Leylah Fernandez have never played before, even though they’re no. 21 and no. 22, respectively, in the World. Fernandez has been nearly unstoppable in her last ten matches, going 9-1. Her only loss in that timespan was a round-of-16 defeat to Elena Rybakina at the WTA Tokyo tournament. While Mboko is 5-5 in her last ten matches, it’s important to remember that she has six titles this year. Even her five losses all came against quality opposition. The five names are: Elena Rybakina, Dayana Yastremska, Ekaterina Alexandrova, Barbora Krejcikova, and Anastasia Potapova. The lowest-ranked player she lost to was no. 64, and the highest was no. 6 in the World. So, she’s not exactly losing to scrubs.
Best Bet to Make
The books have Fernandez as the favorite, and the logic behind it is pretty simple. Fernandez has been almost unbeatable lately, but Mboko has been struggling against top talent. The struggles are to be expected from someone young and as talented as Mboko. She’s going to find herself in matches against women like Fernandez more frequently as she builds and improves her game. Right now, Fernandez is just playing at a different level. Only two of her last ten matches have gone to a third set, and she won both of them. Even her loss against Rybakina wasn’t as one-sided as it could have been. I just think Fernandez is the smarter bet right now.
That being said, Fernandez winning is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/the best odds: Fernandez winning @1.63 @Betfair
Bucsa – Joint: Time 08:30
H2H: 0-0
Cristina Bucsa and Maya Joint will meet for the first time in Hong Kong. Bucsa got a day off yesterday as Belinda Bencic could not play, and so she advanced via a walkover. The question is how much the time off will benefit Bucsa, considering that Joint was the only player to play a three-set match, as Himeno Sakatsume pushed her to the limit. Bucsa improved to 2-0 against Bencic, and Joint has made another semifinal. This is the seventh semifinal for Joint of the year, remarkable when you consider her age.
Best Bet to Make
Joint is the favorite in this match for the third time in three matches. This time around, Joint is the favorite by about .5 points. Both women are 6-4 in their last ten matches. Bucsa’s lowest-rated loss was to Xiyu Wang, who is no. 167 in the World. Joint’s lowest-rated loss was to Ajla Tomljanovic, who is no. 86 in the World. Joint winning 2:0 is on offer for 1.8 on Bet365, and this is the way to go if you’re taking Joint. The payout is nice, and the odds are reasonable.
That being said, Joint winning 2:0 is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/the best odds: Joint winning 2:0 @1.8 @Bet365
Main Photo Credit: Jayne Kamin-USA TODAY Sports
