WTA Hong Kong Best Bets Including Eva Lys vs Leylah Fernandez
The WTA Hong Kong action has now reached the round of 16. Here are my best bets for the matches later today. Please let me know in the comments if you agree with our picks. I have decided to post all four matches in one article for your convenience. Enjoy, and I look forward to reading your thoughts.
WTA Hong Kong
Cirstea – Tomljanovic: Time 08:30
H2H: 1-3
Sorana Cirstea will take on Ajla Tomljanovic for the fifth time in her career. She’s 1-3 in her previous attempts, with the latest match taking place earlier this year at WTA Bad Homburg in the qualifying rounds. In fact, three of their four matches have been in the qualifiers of their respective tournaments. They’ve only played one match in a tournament proper, and that was a second-round match at the 2022 WTA Indian Wells tournament, which Cirstea won in straight sets. This was her only victory in the rivalry. Tomljanovic is coming off a quarterfinal appearance at WTA Ningbo in early October. That was her first quarterfinal since February 28th, when she took on Ena Shibahara in the quarterfinals at WTA Austin.
Best Bet to Make
The books have Cirstea as the favorite, and I don’t disagree. Both women are 6-4 in their last ten matches, but Cirstea seems to be more prepared on a match-by-match basis. Even in her loss to Leylah Fernandez, the last set could have gone either way. When you consider her age in comparison to Fernandez, the performance is even more impressive. Making money on Cirstea is a tricky proposition. They’ve never played a match that went fewer than 16 games, but even that only goes for 1.12, at best. I think a correct score bet is the approach here, and I’m leaning toward 2-0 for 2.02 on 1xBet.
That being said, Cirstea 2:0 is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/the best odds: Cirstea 2:0 @2.02 @1xBet
Morvayova – Joint: Time 07:00
H2H: 0-0
Viktoria Morvayova and Maya Joint will meet for the first time in Hong Kong. Morvayova is having an outstanding year. She is 47-25 overall, and she has a title at ITF Luan 5. She’s primarily been focused on hardcourt play, and she is 36-18 on a hardcourt in ’25. Maya Joint has also been having a great year. She’s an even more impressive 50-27, and she has two titles. Unlike Morvayova, both of Joint’s titles came at WTA events. She has a grass title from WTA Eastbourne and a clay title from WTA Rabat. She is 28-18 on a hardcourt, and is playing WTA Hong Kong for the first time, like Morvayova.
Best Bet to Make
Joint is the largest favorite I’ve seen since taking this job, at least for the matches I’ve covered. She’s such a huge favorite that, if you placed a $100 bet on Morvayova and she won, you’d walk away just shy of $2,000. I won’t be suggesting that bet. Instead, I’ll be suggesting under 16.5 games at 2.05 on 10Bet. Morvayova is a solid player, but Joint is operating at a much higher level and doing it against much better competition. Joint is going to win, the question is by how much. That said, if you have some cash you wanna throw away on an impossible bet, Morvayova is there for the taking.
That being said, Under 16.5 games is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/the best odds: Under 16.5 games @2.05 @10Bet
Jan 13, 2025; Melbourne, Victoria, Australia; Maya Joint of Australia hits a forehand during her match against Jessica Pegula of United States of America in the first round of the men's singles at the 2025 Australian Open at Melbourne Park. Mandatory C… | Source: Lastwordonsports.com - Yesh Ginsburg
Bucsa – Arango: Time 07:00
H2H: 2-0
Cristina Bucsa and Emiliana Arango are meeting for the third time. Bucsa won both of the previous matches, with the latest one occurring this year at WTA Nottingham in the qualifying round. Bucsa won that match in straight sets. Their 2024 WTA Birmingham qualifying round match went to three sets and a tiebreak. Arango is 4-6 in her last ten matches, and Bucsa is 6-4 in hers. Neither player is having a truly great year. Bucsa is 32-30 overall, and Arango is 29-27 overall.
Best Bet to Make
The books favor Bucsa on just about every level. If you think the match stays under 2.5 sets and you favor Bucsa, then just bet Bucsa 2:0, as taking the under on 2.5 sets only goes for 1.44, while the correct score bet is 2.03 on 1xBet. It’s the same bet, but the payout is substantially higher. I’m going to keep this one short and sweet since I’ve already laid out my best bet.
That being said, Bucsa winning 2:0 is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/the best odds: Bucsa winning 2:0 @2.03 @1xBet
Lys – Fernandez: Time 11:30
H2H: 1-0
Eva Lys meets Leylah Fernandez for the second time in her career. Their last match was a straight-set victory by Lys at the 2023 Beijing Open qualifiers. Lys is 8-2 in her last ten matches, and her only losses came to Victoria Mboko and Coco Gauff. She lost to Gauff in the WTA Beijing quarterfinals and Mboko in the round of 16 at WTA Tokyo. Fernandez is 7-3 in her last ten, and is seeking her third quarterfinal appearance in a row at WTA Hong Kong. She previously won here in 2023, and she made the semifinals last year.
Best Bet to Make
Fernandez is a favorite, but the line is respectful of Lys’ own accomplishments. The average is 2.31 to 1.6, and might be worth your time as an upset pick. I think it’s important to remember that Fernandez has a lot of pressure on her as the winner last year. While she’s handled that pressure brilliantly, one wonders when she hits a wall with all that is demanded of her. That’s what separates the great from the good, so we will see if she can answer the bell of greatness. If Fernandez can break Lys’ rhythm and break serve, she has a strong chance of overwhelming Lys early.
That being said, Fernandez winning is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/the best odds: Fernandez winning @1.64 @Pinnacle
