We have reached the business end of the second week in Flushing, New York, and have a blockbuster women’s semifinal on the docket. No. 1 seed Aryna Sabalenka squares off against No. 4 seed Jessica Pegula in a rematch of the 2024 US Open final. As always, we at LWOT offer our preview and prediction. Offering their insights are Jordan Reynolds, Zain Mustafa, Tope Oke, and Shane Black. But who will advance to the US Open final?
US Open Women’s Semifinal Prediction
Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula
Head-to-Head: Sabalenka 7-2 Pegula
Jordan
Pegula has lost her last three matches without dropping a set against Sabalenka, including the 2024 US Open final, but four of those sets finished 5-7. Expectations were not overly high for the American before the tournament, but going under the radar has suited her. I have a feeling that Pegula will pull off an upset. Sabalenka receiving a walkover from Marketa Vondrousova in the quarterfinal may disrupt her rhythm, and I think Pegula can catch the world No. 1 cold with her relentless baseline consistency. Sabalenka will have lost to a different American at all four Grand Slams this season if Pegula prevails.
Prediction: Pegula in 3
Zain
Aryna Sabalenka and Jessica Pegula are set to face off at the US Open once again, this time in the semifinals, marking a rematch of last year’s final. Sabalenka won that encounter in straight sets, 7-5, 7-5, and enters this match as the firm favorite once more. She has dominated their head-to-head record, leading 7-2, and her ability to dictate play with power and precision has consistently given her the edge. Sabalenka’s aggressive baseline game, big serve, and relentless ball-striking have often overwhelmed Pegula. Pegula thrives as a counterpuncher, relying on her ability to stay on the baseline, maneuver opponents, and absorb pace. However, against the sheer speed and weight of Sabalenka’s shots, that task becomes an enormous challenge.
For Pegula to truly test the World No. 1, she will need to change her approach, serve with more aggression, and hope that Sabalenka’s tendency to overhit in big matches reappears. Should those errors come, Pegula must seize every opportunity without hesitation. Yet, these remain significant “ifs.” While the American has enjoyed a strong tournament run, Sabalenka’s firepower and confidence may once again prove to be a step too far.
Prediction: Sabalenka in 2
Tope
Neither player has dropped a set in New York and has been very emphatic in their wins, more so Pegula, who played more than 18 games just once in her victory over Victoria Azarenka. While the head-to-head favors the top seed, the American has looked solid and assured. With the home fans behind her, I think she can avenge last year’s close final defeat and make it to another championship match.
Prediction: Pegula in 3
Shane
At 31 years old, you have to believe Pegula’s chances to claim that elusive Slam have a heightened urgency. She has been absolutely dominant in New York over the last two years, dropping just three sets in 12 matches (zero this year). She uses this American crowd to her advantage and loves the speedy hard courts. However, Sabalenka is inarguably the best hard-court player in the women’s game. She is 70-14 on the surface since the beginning of 2024.
This is a tough match to predict. Both women come into this semifinal bout confident and fresh. Sabalenka has more experience at this stage in Slams—12 semis versus Pegula’s one—though the Buffalo native will have the support of the Arthur Ashe crowd. This should be a blockbuster, but I side with the reigning champ.
Prediction: Sabalenka in 3
Main Photo Credit: Robert Deutsch – Imagn Images
