The fourth round of the US Open ends on Monday, Day 9 of the event. Four matches will determine the final four quarterfinalists. As always, we here at LastWordOnTennis share our thoughts on all four matches. Predicting these matches are Jordan Reynolds, Zain Mustafa, Tope Oke, Damian Kust, and Ateet Shrivastava. Who do you think will advance?
US Open Day 9 Men’s Predictions
Lorenzo Musetti vs Jaume Munar
Jordan:
I expect Musetti to prevail comfortably. He possesses a much more complete game, and his variety is a bad fit for Munar’s style. The Spaniard does not have a weapon to put Musetti under consistent pressure.
Prediction: Musetti in 3
Zain:
So, who saw this match coming in the second week of the US Open? Jaume Munar and Lorenzo Musetti have both had very good seasons by their respective standards, but neither is known for hard-court prowess. This is a great opportunity for both to make a hard-court Slam quarterfinal, which would be a first for each. Musetti is the better player with the higher ceiling, but I feel this will be a tense, tight affair ultimately won by the underdog.
Prediction: Munar in 5
Tope:
Despite losing five of his last six matches before the US Open, Musetti has been nearly flawless since he dropped the first set against Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard in the opening round. He will next face Jaume Munar, who has reached the fourth round of a Grand Slam for the first time after a comfortable win over Zizou Bergs.
Munar also holds a 2-1 advantage in their head-to-head matchups, including a 1-0 record on outdoor hard courts. While the Italian looks to have regained his form, he needs to be cautious of Munar, who excels at wearing down his opponents with strong rally endurance.
Prediction: Musetti in 5
Damian:
Munar leads the head-to-head pretty heavily and has improved so much outside of clay this season. Musetti, on the other hand, was not looked at as a contender for the US Open with terrible form coming in. But the draw has opened up and it would be disappointing for him not to take advantage. Munar is clearly a bothersome opponent for him, but in the longer format I’ll just about trust one of the most versatile players on tour to figure something out.
Prediction: Musetti in 5
Ateet:
Lorenzo Musetti has found his best form at the perfect time and is growing in confidence with every match. Jaume Munar is playing some great tennis, but Musetti’s variety and court coverage will keep Munar on his toes. The Spaniard has a winning record against Musetti, but the majority of his wins have come on clay, and Musetti would be extra focused on winning this one.
Prediction: Musetti in 5
Andrey Rublev vs Felix Auger-Alliasame
Jordan:
Auger-Aliassime’s level against Alexander Zverev reminded fans how good his peak level is. But I do not trust the Canadian to be consistent and play like that again in this matchup. If Rublev is ready to take advantage of concentration lapses from Auger-Aliassime, he has a good chance of making an 11th Grand Slam quarterfinal.
Prediction: Rublev in 4
Zain:
Both players could not have had more contrasting third-round matches, with Andrey Rublev barely scraping past Coleman Wong, while Felix Auger-Aliassime defeated the World No. 3 for his first true breakthrough victory at a Grand Slam. That said, Rublev has looked much more stable, both in his game and mentally, this tournament than earlier in the year. He also completely dominates this head-to-head, which should give him enough confidence to get a good result against a seemingly inspired opponent here.
Prediction: Rublev in 4
Tope:
Rublev holds a commanding advantage in their head-to-head record, leading 7-1 and 2-0 on outdoor hard courts. He has triumphed in both of their encounters this year in Doha and Hamburg and has won their last five matches overall. Although he hasn’t been at his peak in this tournament, I am still more confident that the Russian will find a way past the Canadian and reach another quarter-final at Flushing Meadows.
Prediction: Rublev in 5
Damian:
Zverev had a terrible Slam performance again and now this section looks a lot more open. Rublev leads the head-to-head 7-1, but a lot of these encounters over the years have been close. Gut feeling says to go with Auger-Aliassime as he was surprisingly clean in the first few rounds. But Rublev is typically the more dynamic and more all-rounded player, so I’ll go against how they’ve looked so far at this event.
Prediction: Rublev in 5
Ateet:
Felix Auger-Aliassime played his best match of the season to get his first win against a top-5 player at a Slam. He completely outplayed Alexander Zverev after dropping the first set and was seeing the ball like a football. His tactic of exploiting Zverev’s forehand worked brilliantly, but that might not be the case against Andrey Rublev, who has much better control and aggression on his forehand. Rublev has dominated this matchup in the past, but I’m going with the current form and level.
Prediction: Auger-Aliassime in 5
Alex de Minaur vs Leandro Reidi
Jordan:
Riedi does not have much to lose after his unexpected run in New York. That might help him play with freedom, but this is not a great matchup for him. Riedi will struggle to consistently hit past the speedy de Minaur or stay with him in lengthy rallies, meaning a pathway to victory for him is hard to find.
Prediction: de Minaur in 3
Zain:
Ranked outside the world’s top 450 entering the tournament, Leandro Riedi has found the perfect level and a touch of fortune so far, reaching the second week in just the second major main draw he has ever qualified for. The fairytale ends here, though. While some may question Alex de Minaur’s ceiling as not being high enough to challenge the elites consistently, his floor is strong enough to completely overwhelm inferior competition, backed by his relentless defense and habit of turning matches into battles of endurance.
Prediction: de Minaur in 3
Tope:
Alex de Minaur has faced little difficulty so far in New York, and it seems unlikely this will change against the relatively inexperienced Riedi. The Swiss player has achieved remarkable success to reach this stage, but De Minaur is the more formidable opponent and is expected to secure his place in the quarter-finals with a decisive victory.
Prediction: de Minaur in 3
Damian:
The quick retirement from Majchrzak should give Riedi some extra time to recover, which the Swiss qualifier might need right now. His ball-striking is elite and once he puts the injury issues to bed, he’ll be in the Top 100 sooner than later. It’s tough to pick him for another upset with de Minaur’s excellent speed and defending, but Riedi will have some space here to fire away with his fun, attacking tennis.
Prediction: de Minaur in 4
Ateet:
Leandro Riedi is having the best run of his life and will get back inside the top 200 when the rankings get updated. However, his run will most likely come to an end against Alex de Minaur, who will suffocate the Swiss player with his consistency and defense.
Prediction: de Minaur in 4
<4h>Jannik Sinner vs Alexander Bublik
Jordan:
Bublik’s serve was exceptional in the opening three rounds. His only chance of victory is serving at the same level and hoping Sinner has a bad day. He beat the Italian in Halle, but that was Sinner’s first match after his brutal French Open final loss. Bublik winning again is unlikely.
Prediction: Sinner in 3
Zain:
World No. 1 Jannik Sinner survived a scare when he was one point away from going down 0-4 in the third set against Denis Shapovalov, after already having dropped the first set. But then he reminded us all why he is the best player in the world, winning 12 of the next 15 games and ending the match on a high note. His Cincinnati sickness is firmly behind him, but he has been having issues landing a first serve–something his next opponent, Alexander Bublik, has had no worries about, remaining unbroken so far this tournament.
This will be their third meeting this year, with the head-to-head tied at one apiece this season: Bublik’s win came on Halle’s fast grass, while Sinner’s came on the slower clay of Paris. If Bublik serves well, any match can get interesting. While I can see Sinner dropping a set here, I firmly believe the Italian will raise his level this round, showing the world why this tournament still runs through him.
Prediction: Sinner in 3
Tope:
Let’s keep this concise and straightforward. The only person who has defeated Jannik Sinner, bar Carlos Alcaraz, in almost a year, or at least the last 50 matches, is Alexander Bublik. On paper, it appears to be a mismatch, as the odds suggest, but I feel it will be very close due to the way the Kazakh is serving. To add to that, Bublik has hit more winners (154) than anyone else in New York compared to Sinner’s 74. If he holds his serve, he’ll upset the Italian.
Prediction: Bublik in 5
Damian:
Sinner is such a machine right now that his matches just feel like a procession and there’s rarely any intrigue in how it will play out unless he’s facing Alcaraz. But Bublik might be an exception. Most players attempt to tackle the Italian with conventional baseline tennis and simply can’t match his shot-for-shot quality. Bublik, with how locked in he is this year, will make it more fun and unusual. But getting Sinner off-balance on a hard court will not come as easy on a natural surface in Halle.
Prediction: Sinner in 4
Ateet:
Top seed Jannik Sinner was in a bit of bother in his third-round match as Denis Shapovalov played a great match and almost pushed the Italian to five sets. Sinner’s serve was missing for most of the match, and he must find it back against the red-hot Alexander Bublik, who is the last player to beat Sinner in a completed match. Bublik is on an 11-match win streak and will be the biggest challenge for the World No.1 so far. I expect Sinner to raise his level and win this.
Prediction: Sinner in 4
Main Photo Credit: Mike Frey-USA TODAY Sports
