US Open action kicks off on Sunday with a bevy of intriguing matches on both the men’s and women’s sides. 19-year-old budding star Jakub Mensik gets his campaign underway against the ever-dangerous Nicolas Jarry. As always, we at LWOT provide the preview and prediction for all matches on the slate, with Damian Kust, Steen Kirby, and Tope Oke offering their insights.
Our other prediction pieces feature Ben Shelton vs Ignacio Buse, Novak Djokovic vs Learner Tien, Taylor Fritz vs Emilio Nava, and Daniil Medvedev vs Benjamin Bonzi. But who will advance?
US Open Day 1 Men’s Predictions
Tallon Griekspoor vs Adrian Mannarino
Damian
The Mannarino resurgence since the grass season began has been beautiful to watch, and his Cincinnati performances were nothing short of excellent. Griekspoor, on the other hand, is arriving at this event on four losses in a row. He needs to pull himself together rapidly if he is to produce any sort of run here. I’ll guess he will, but it’s really unclear at the moment.
Prediction: Griekspoor in 5
Steen
Mannarino is in a rich vein of form and at 37, is ready for his US Open swan song. He qualified and reached the round of 16 in Cincinnati, and the second round in Canada, after reaching the grass court final in Newport and the third round of Wimbledon as a qualifier. The Frenchman has recovered his ranking after winning so many matches lately. Griekspoor hasn’t made a run anywhere since winning the Mallorca title on grass. Griekspoor is ranked much higher, but Mannarino is playing better, and he’s a tricky opponent.
Prediction: Mannarino in 4
Tope
Tallon Griekspoor is the more powerful player on these courts, but currently, it is the Frenchman who is in better form. The question is whether his body can withstand a five-setter. I’ll take a stab on the younger Dutchman to grind out a win
Prediction: Griekspoor in 5
Roberto Carballes Baena vs Arthur Rinderknech
Damian
Carballes Baena isn’t having a great season, partly because of the hip issue he was battling. His development on hard courts over the years was great to watch as he slowly improved and won one match each in the last five editions. The streak might end here as he would need to be on top of his game to tackle Rinderknech on this surface.
Prediction: Rinderknech in 4
Steen
RCB went 2-2 on summer hard courts. He’s been in a slump this season, while Rinderknech won a pair of matches in Cincinnati. Neither player is a world beater, but Rinderknech prefers the hard court surface.
Prediction: Rinderknech in 4
Tope
Carballes Baena has the advantage in their head-to-head record, having defeated Rinderknech twice in 2021, although both matches were played on his preferred clay surface. On hardcourts, Rinderknech is expected to earn more points with his serving and generally more powerful game to close out the match.
Prediction: Rinderknech in 4
Jordan Thompson vs Corentin Moutet
Damian
Since struggling with a back issue at Wimbledon, Thompson has only played one match and won four games against Mannarino in Cincinnati. The stop-start nature of this season has really taken him out of rhythm, and Moutet already took advantage of that in Indian Wells. He’ll probably do it again. Form-wise, he’s just a class ahead right now.
Prediction: Moutet in 4
Steen
Thompson played well at Wimbledon but only got one match in preparing for the US Open. Thompson is struggling to recover from injuries lately. Meanwhile, Moutet will be brimming with confidence after a great semifinal run in Washington and a 2-2 record in the two hard-court masters. Sitting at a career high ranking, the 26-year-old believes he’s in his prime and should thrive in the NYC conditions.
Prediction: Moutet in 3
Tope
This season has seen Thompson struggle with injuries and fitness, but he did reach the fourth round at Flushing Meadows last year. Moutet won their only meeting earlier in the season and will be quite confident of doing a double over the Australian after some impressive performances during the US swing. Despite Thompson’s ongoing injury issues, he remains a formidable opponent in a best-of-five set match, and I see this going the distance with Moutet using guile to get over the line.
Prediction: Moutet in 5
Jakub Mensik vs Nicolas Jarry
Damian
Mensik made the third round at the US Open in both previous appearances, but we’re still waiting for the big Grand Slam breakthrough for the Czech. Toronto and Cincinnati weren’t successful for him, and Jarry tends to be a deadly opening-round opponent. It’s just that Mensik feels a lot more consistent, especially with how much better his movement is.
Prediction: Mensik in 4
Steen
Mensik is 28-17 on the season with a Masters title in hand, but he only went 2-2 prepping for the US Open on hard courts. Can the veteran Jarry match his run to the second week of Wimbledon and pull off an upset? It seems unlikely that Jarry carries a four-match losing streak and has never excelled on hard courts. Mensik should begin well.
Prediction: Mensik in 3
Tope
Jakub Mensik has had a challenging lead-up on hard courts before the US Open. He recently retired from his third-round match against Luca Nardi in Cincinnati due to illness, but should be healthy for this tournament. His Chilean opponent, Nicolas Jarry, has had a tougher season, even though he surprisingly made it to the fourth round at Wimbledon. However, since then, he hasn’t won a single match, facing first-round losses in Toronto, Cincinnati, and Winston-Salem. Mensik may not be performing at the same level as he was in the spring, but he is still a strong favorite in this matchup against a struggling Jarry.
Prediction: Mensik in 4
Main Photo Credit: Andy Abeyta/Desert Sun/USAToday Network
