Almost eight months gone, three to go. The ATP Finals in Turin are fast approaching, and players are chasing precious points to secure their place in the most prestigious event outside the Slams. In Turin, the eight best players of the season will battle for the coveted ‘Maestro’ title. And with one Grand Slam, three Masters 1000s, and several ATP 500s still to come, there are plenty of opportunities left. Two spots are already secured, and six more seem within reach for the current leaders. Let’s take a look at the current state of the Race after the second round of the Cincinnati Masters.
Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner have already guaranteed their tickets to Turin. The duo has dominated in 2025, winning all three Grand Slams and leaving rivals trailing behind. Alcaraz tops the Race, but Sinner’s feat is arguably more impressive given he has played just five tournaments this year, serving a three-month suspension after the Clostebol case.
Alexander Zverev sits third after a semifinal run in Canada. Despite calling his 2025 “horrible” on the Nothing Major podcast – a fair assessment given his post-Australian Open results – he remains well positioned to qualify for Turin.
Set for his ATP Finals debut is Ben Shelton. Though he fell to the eventual champion in all three Slams, he lifted his first Masters 1000 trophy in Toronto. With the remaining events on hard courts, his path to Turin looks smooth.
Fifth in the Race is Novak Djokovic, a man who continues to defy time. 2,160 of his 3,380 points (over 60%) come from Grand Slam semifinal runs, and he could secure his spot as early as the US Open. The general feeling, however, is that his participation in Turin is up to him: it may depend on whether he plays more tournaments and if he truly wants to return to the ATP Finals. Last year, he qualified but withdrew due to injury – raising the question: at 38, does he still have the hunger?
A bit more uncertainty surrounds the spots from six to eight. One spot should be wrapped up by Taylor Fritz, who has transformed his season since June, winning 20 matches – more than anyone else in that stretch. Likely among the world’s top five hard-court players right now, he is strongly favored to grab one of the last spots.
Jack Draper and Alex de Minaur currently occupy the seventh and eighth spots, with a significant cushion over their nearest challengers. While a dip in form is possible, the question remains: who could realistically close the gap and catch them?
After their efforts in Cincinnati, neither Lorenzo Musetti and Casper Ruud, ninth and tenth in the Race, look likely to make it to Turin. Both suffered early exits in Ohio, and away from of clay they’ve struggled to threaten the elite in recent years. Whilst both have recently recovered from injury and are searching for rhythm, without a deep run at the US Open or in the autumn Masters, both will struggle to find a spot in the elite eight.
A few dangerous hard-court players lurk further back, though at least 700 points behind de Minaur. A single inspired fortnight could change everything – as Karen Khachanov proved in Toronto – but it’s far from easy. The most realistic threats are Andrey Rublev, Tommy Paul, and Holger Rune. Another player who should also never be ruled out is former world #1 Daniil Medvedev, but he is increasingly in need of something close to a miracle as he’s barely inside the top 20 in the Race.
Main photo credit: Susan Mullane-Imagn Images
