The first round of ATP Bastad kicks off today, and LWOS is here with more best bets. David is on break, so I am filling in for a little. ATP Bastad is one of two destinations with premium ATP events, with the other taking place in Los Cabos. Let us know in the comments how you’re betting.
ATP Nordea Open
Pellegrino – Faria: Time 12:30
H2H: 0-0
Andrea Pellegrino and Jaime Faria will meet for the first time in Bastad. Pellegrino has seen a good amount of success in 2025, with one lower-level tournament title to his name and several close calls. Faria has had a more focused year, being picky with the tournaments in which he plays. He was also out of action for almost all of May, and then he was injured again in June. When he has competed, he has had mixed success. Many of his wins are coming in the qualifying rounds of most tournaments, though he does have two quarterfinal appearances.
Best Bet to Make
Pellegrino is the favorite here, and for pretty good reason. Faria has had notable successes this year. He notched his first-ever win at a major, and he had the aforementioned two quarterfinal appearances. Despite that, Pellegrino has had far more consistency. He’s winning two games for every one he loses, and he’s shown himself perfectly capable of winning challenger matches. Now it’s time for that success to translate to the upper level. Pellegrino can also be had for 1.85 on William Hill if you act fast, though the money seems to be coming in on Faria.
That being said, Pellegrino winning is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Pellegrino winning @1.85 @WilliamHill
Gaston – Tseng: Time 11:00
H2H: 0-0
Hugo Gaston and Chun-Hsin Tseng are having very different years. While Tseng has been in two finals with one tournament victory and several quarterfinal appearances, Gaston hasn’t gone past the round of 16. Gaston is currently 13-20 on the year and seems to be in a world-ranking free fall. Tseng seems to be on the verge of putting it all together. There are tournaments where he’s able to control the tempo and the tenor of the match, and then there are matches like he had against Camilo Ugo Carabelli, where he dominated the first match and was pushed to the max in a 7-6 tiebreak second-set loss, and he completely folded after that. Consistently, there’s been way more good than bad, though.
Best Bet to Make
This is actually a super interesting match on paper for several reasons. Neither competitor is all that tall, and both have to rely on consistent groundstrokes and their general creativity because they lack the overall power due to their lack of size. I like Tseng in this match because he’s been the more consistent player this year, and that’s generally a good sign entering a match where someone has to dictate the pace. Not only is Tseng more consistent, he’s had the better year, and he’s 20-13 on clay, whereas Gaston is 5-13 on clay.
That being said, Tseng winning is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Tseng winning @2.2 @BetfVictor
Ugo-Carabelli – Garin: Time 14:00
H2H: 0-0
Camilo Ugo-Carabelli vs Cristian Garin rounds out my match predictions. If you’re looking strictly at world rankings, this match looks a little lopsided, but that’s not the case, fortunately. Both men are accomplished clay players. Ugo-Carabelli is 337-185 on clay, and Garin is 330-192 on clay. Garin is 23-8 on clay this year, and Ugo-Carabelli is 23-12 on clay in 2025. It’s only when you get to their yearly records that Garin begins to separate himself from Ugo-Carabelli. Garin is 32-15 overall in ’25, but Ugo-Carabelli is only 26-20 in 2025. Garin also has two tournament victories in ’25 to Ugo-Carabelli’s one.
Best Bet to Make
The books have Garin in this match, and it’s fairly easy to see why. Aside from everything I outlined above, Garin is 6-4 in his last ten matches while Ugo-Carabelli is 2-8, having literally just broken a seven-game losing streak in his last match. Carabelli is also a walking injury, having already been injured once this year and possessing a lengthy history of needing to retire. Even on clay, Carabelli seems to genuinely struggle. February was the last time he was threatening on clay. This match seems perfect for a confident player like Garin, and I expect him to finish Ugo-Carabelli quickly.
That being said, Garin winning is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Garin winning @1.76 @Pinnacle
Main Photo Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports
