The first semifinal at the WTA Wimbledon Championship is an absolute banger, as the kids say. Amanda Anisimova and Aryna Sabalenka have quite the rivalry, and Wimbledon will be the fifth time they’ve played at a Major. Here are my best bets for each player, as well as my overall prediction.. Drop your predictions in the comments.
WTA Wimbledon Open
Sabalenka – Anisimova: Time 14:30
H2H: 3-5
Anisimova is one of the few players in the world who can claim a winning record against Sabalenka. Anisimova’s success is no fluke, either. She has a better record against Sabalenka on a hardcourt and on clay. This will be their first match on grass. While this is Anisimova’s first semifinal at Wimbledon, it is the third semifinal in a row for Sabalenka. It’s worth noting that these semifinals are not concurrent. They occurred in 2023 and 2021, but those are also the last two years in which Sabalenka participated in Wimbledon.
Best Bet to Make for Anisimova
The books have Sabalenka as the favorite in this match, and I’m not sure if I agree. Wimbledon has been rather tough for Sabalenka. She’s had a tiebreak in every single match she’s played, and the last match ended up in a third set. Outside of a 6-1 and a 6-2, 9-of-11 sets at Wimbledon have Sabalenka at 6-4 or higher. Of course, you can say that it shows she’s a competitor and plays until the end, but she was also at least a 7-1 favorite in three of her five Wimbledon matches, and was as high as 12-1 in one of them. These are people who don’t usually beat her, so what’s gonna happen when she runs into someone who does? Anisimova winning seems to be the norm in these matches.
That being said, Anisimova winning is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Anisimova winning @3.4 @Bet365
Best Bet to Make for Sabalenka
Anisimova and Sabalenka have the exact same 8-2 record in their last ten matches each. Their losses also occurred at the same time in their respective ten-game stretches. Anisimova also seems to excel against Sabalenka, but it is worth noting that Anisimova is 1-2 in her last three matches against Sabalenka. Anisimova also lost the last two Majors in which she played Sabalenka. She does have two victories against her at the same Majors, but those took place in 2019, while Sabalenka beat her in this year’s French Open and last year’s Australian Open.
That being said, Sabalenka winning 2:0 is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Sabalenka winning 2:0 @1.95 @Betway
Best Bet to Make/My Pick
Anisimova is absolutely fantastic, and she normally beats Sabalenka, but not this time. Sabalenka has turned the tables on her in their last two meetings at a Major, and this is a competition she’s never won. The experience in those semifinals, combined with her recent strategy against Sabalenka, seems like a much more stable foundation for winning than simply being 5-3 against your opponent. Anisimova has also never reached the semifinals of Wimbledon, let alone the final. Anisimova has also struggled this Wimbledon, with two of her last three matches going three sets, and her last match going to a tiebreak.
That being said, Under 21 games is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Sabalenka winning under 21 games @1.91 @WilliamHill
Main Photo Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports
