The WTA Berlin Open has been nothing short of incredible. Marketa Vondrousova has announced her return spectacularly, while Xinyu Wang continues to prove why she’s one the world’s best rising talents at only 23 years of age. Even though it barely hit our minimum, we will cover the best bets for this match, and throw in a prop bet you can also play. Tell me in the comments if you agree with my decisions.
WTA Berlin Open
Vondrousova – Wang: Time 12:00
H2H: 0-0
Vondrousova and Wang will meet for the first time in their careers in Berlin. Vondrousova is a former Wimbledon winner, Olympic silver medal winner, and a top 10 player in the world. Injuries to her hand in the middle of 2024 put her out of action for six months. She decided to return from her injury only to be forced back out of action again, this time due to a shoulder injury. Her first grass tournament of the year was in Berlin.
Meanwhile, Wang ran through Talia Gibson, Ons Jabeur, Daria Kasatkina, Coco Gauff, Paula Badosa, and Liudmila Samsonova en route to this final. Vondrousova might be cooking, but that doesn’t mean Wang doesn’t even belong at the grill. Of all the matches Wang has played in Berlin, only Gibson and Jabeur went to three sets. It would be foolish to discount Wang solely because Vondrousova has been doing Vondrousova things.
Best Bet to Make
The books have Vondrousova as the favorite because her current play reminds people of her play before injuries in 2024, when she was one of the best in the world. If you’re betting straight up, the best you will get is 1.5 at Betfair. While that’s fine, you could just as easily take up the under on 2.5 sets at 1.58 and get that little extra. If you think it will go to a third set, you can pick the over going for 2.55 at several outlets. Reading between the lines, it seems like the total games Vegas is expecting is in the ballpark of 21.5-22 games, with Vegas seeming to favor the 21.5 a slight bit more. I’ll talk about the Wang bets below. If you think Vondrousova is going to win in straight sets, then it makes the most sense to play for the correct score.
That being said, Vondrousova winning 2:0 is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Vondrousova winning 2:0 @2.2 @WilliamHill
Vondrousova – Wang: Time 12:00
Best Bet to Make
There are several different routes to go for Wang, but first let me start with the question of why you even should bet on her. Wang is solid on grass when she has to be. Her only loss on grass this year even went three sets. She then immediately applied the lessons she learned from that loss and turned it into a win when she was in the literal exact situation four days later, also on grass. After losing the first set, Wang won the second set via tiebrak, just like her previous match. But instead of taking her foot off the gas even slightly, she stayed aggressive and beat her opponent in a tiebreak during the third set.
Then there’s the names that Wang beat to get here. You don’t accidentally beat Kasatkina, Gauff, Badosa and Samsonova in straight sets. In fact, the closest any of those names came to winning a set was losing 6-4, and that only happened one time. None of those names came closer than 6-3 in the second and final set. Simply put, Wang is not here by fluke or by chance. She has earned this spot and might even be in an advantageous position because Vondrousova likely won’t take her as seriously as she would someone like Samsonova or Badosa. That gives Wang the benefit of being the understated underdog, which is exactly how Vegas sees her.
That being said, Wang winning is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Wang winning @2.8 @BetfVictor
Main Photo Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
