The qualifying rounds are now over in Berlin, and it’s time for first-round action at the WTA German Open. The tennis gods have blessed us with a top 10 match in the first round when Paula Badosa takes on Emma Navarro, and that’s just one of many quality matches in the first round. As always, here are my best bets for the WTA German Open. Let me know if you agree in the comments.
WTA German Open
Badosa – Navarro: Time 10:00
H2H: 1-1
Paula Badosa and Emma Navarro have only recently — as in 2024 — kicked off what should be a long and robust rivalry. They’re currently knotted at one win per lady, with Navarro winning on a hardcourt in the quarterfinals of the ’24 U.S. Open, and Badosa winning in three sets during the second round of the ’24 Italian Open on clay. Neither lady is in their best form right now. Badosa is 6-4 in her last ten matches, and Navarro is 5-5 in hers. Both ladies have two quarterfinal appearances apiece during that stretch of games.
Best Bet to Make
The books have Badosa winning, but they’re not overly confident in that idea. Both ladies’ 2025 overall records are solid: Badosa is 16-9, and Navarro is 19-14. When it comes to playing on grass, Badosa is 21-14 in her career, and Navarro is 16-7. Badosa is a favorite, but this is only her second match on grass in 2025; at least Navarro participated in one other grass tournament before Berlin, and made the quarterfinals. Badosa might be the favorite in this match, but I feel like Navarro is going to walk away with the win.
That being said, Navarro winning is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Navarro winning @2.22 @Betfair
Osaka – Samsonova: Time 11:30
H2H: 2-1
Naomi Osaka might be the underdog headed into her match with Liudmila Samsonova, but with a 2-1 career record against her, she knows that she can beat her, and that it took Samsonova three sets and a tiebreak in order to beat her. As confident as Osaka is, Samsonova can take comfort in the fact that Osaka is 21-17 on grass, but she’s 28-15 on the same surface. Osaka is on a two-match losing streak, but is also coming off of an eight-match winning streak. Samsonova is also on a two-match losing streak, but a loss to Elena Rybakina in the finals at Strasbourg prevented her from notching an eight-match winning streak of her own.
Best Bet to Make
The reason Samsonova is likely the favorite in this match is that she has one other match on grass in 2025, and it was right before this match. I would also add in the fact that Osaka is a bit injury-prone in 2025 because of an ongoing abdominal strain. She tried to come back early from it and quickly found herself having to pull out of the Australian Open for the same issue. This time, she waited until March 2, 2025, to return. Osaka might have Samsonova’s number, but I think Samsonova is the smart bet here. Osaka isn’t good enough on grass to inspire much confidence. This means that Samsonova can work around the court and test that abdomen of hers.
That being said, Samsonova winning is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Samsonova winning @1.79 @Pinnacle
Vondrousova – Keys: Time 13:00
H2H: 0-1
Marketa Vondrousova and Madison Keys have had wildly different years. Vondrousova has only participated in five tournaments and has only made one quarterfinal. Keys is on tournament no. 11 of the year, and she has two tournament victories to her name, coming back-to-back in the form of the Adelaide International Open and Australian Open tournaments. While Vondrousova is 5-5 in her last ten matches, Keys is 7-3 with her losses including a Queen’s Club semifinal and a French Open quarterfinal. Add to the fact that Keys’ third-best surface is grass, with only clay drawing more of her attention outside of her traditional hardcourt play.
Best Bet to Make
There’s a reason Keys is the heavy favorite in this match. Betting on her straight up isn’t going to do you much good. That said, betting on her with a correct score can be quite profitable. If you lock in sooner rather than later, you can double your money on Bet365 by choosing Keys to win two sets to none. Not only is Keys 52-20 on grass, while Vondrousova is 15-14, but Vondrousova hasn’t even played a match on grass this year. That’s a heck of a first match, especially since she only played three total matches on grass last year.
That being said, Keys winning 2:0 is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Keys winning 2:0 @2.00 @Bet365
Main Photo Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports
