The WTA Italian Open has had some real surprises, meaning anything goes for the semifinal. Will Coco Gauff finally win her first tournament? Does Peyton Stearns have any magic left? Maybe it’s Qinwen Zheng or Jasmine Paolini who wins their first tournament of 2025. Here are my best bets. Let me know if you agree in the comments.
WTA Italian Open Quarterfinal
Paolini – Stearns: Time 15:00
H2H: 0-0
Jasmine Paolini and Peyton Stearns have taken very different routes to get to this point. While Paolini has certainly faced tough competition, Stearns has certainly been the underdog in most of her matches. That she’s here is a testament to her fight. Three of her five matches in Rome have been three sets, with both of them going to a tiebreak in the third set. While Paolini is the clay veteran, Stearns and she both have an 8-2 record on the surface in 2025.
Best Bet to Make
The books have Paolini as a pretty decent favorite, and it makes a lot of sense. She’s the higher-ranked of the two players, and she’s a clay veteran who is also in the semifinals of the women’s doubles in Rome, too. If you’re going to lay action on Paolini, it would be better to go with a correct score. The odds are great for either 2:0 or 2:1 in Paolini’s favor. If you’re in the mood to lay action on Stearns pulling another upset, she does have at least seven on the year. You can find great odds going with the correct score for either competitor, but Paolini is the way to go in this match.
That being said, Paolini winning 2:0 is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Paolini winning 2:0 @2.15 @WilliamHill
Zheng – Gauff: Time 11:00
H2H: 0-2
Qinwen Zheng has only played in eight tournaments in 2025, but it seems like it usually takes one of the best in the world to take her out when she does. Zheng has two quarterfinal losses to Aryna Sabalenka, one to Ekaterina Alexandrova, and one to Iga Swiatek. One has to imagine that it felt pretty good for Zheng to slay the dragon that was Sabalenka. Gauff has only had two tournaments all year where she didn’t notch a win. Gauff reached the semifinal stage of this tournament last year before losing. Both ladies have something to play for in Rome.
Best Bet to Make
Coco Gauff is the favorite in this match for a good reason. She’s 2-0 against Zheng, and both matches took place in 2024. She also beat Zheng here last year in the quarterfinals in straight sets. Zheng is definitely capable of another upset, but where will she be mentally after finally upending Sabalenka after seven tries? Gauff is as dialed in as ever and isn’t going to have a much better chance to win her first tournament. I expect Gauff to come out fast early and look to put Zheng away before ever letting her mentally join the game.
That being said, Gauff winning 2:0 is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Gauff winning 2:0 @2.3 @WilliamHill
Main Photo Credit: Mike Frey-USA TODAY Sports
