ATP Masters 1000 Rome quarterfinals
Draper – Alcaraz: 14.05.2025 15:00 CEST
H2H: 2-3
Jack Draper has won four of his last five matches. Last week in Madrid, Draper lost against Ruud in the final in three tight sets. This week in Rome, the Brit defeated Darderi in the opening round. Kopriva also had no answer for Draper’s game in the third round. The Brit won in straight sets, saving all four breakpoints. Today in the 1/8-Finals, Draper defeated Moutet in three sets after losing the opening set 1-6. Last season in Rome, the Brit lost against Medvedev in the second round in straight sets.
Carlos Alcaraz has won four of his last five matches. This is his second appearance in Rome. In the opening round, Alcaraz won against Lajovic 6-3 6-3. The Spaniard faced another Serb in the third round. He trailed 1-3 in the opening set against Djere but turned it around. Today, in the 1/8-Finals, Alcaraz had his toughest challenge this week. He defeated Khachanov in three tight sets after spending almost three hours on the court. In his debut campaign, the Spaniard lost against Marozsan in the third round.
Best Bets to Make
Main Bet
According to the bookies, Alcaraz is the favourite in this matchup, and we agree. He is the biggest favourite to win the tournament and is currently the best clay-court player on tour. On the other hand, Draper played many matches in the last couple of weeks and was tired today on the court against Moutet. We expect Alcaraz to win comfortably.
That being said, Alcaraz winning in straight sets is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Carlos Alcaraz winning 2-0 @2.10 @bet365
Extra Bet
Both players serve well, and we expect a tight opening set without a tiebreak. The conditions are slow, but we still expect at least one break of serve.
That said, a value bet is on either player winning the opening set 6-3 or 6-4.
Value bet/ the best odds: either player to win the first set 6-3 or 6-4 @-160 @FanDuel
Musetti – Zverev: 14.05.2025 20:30 CEST
H2H: 2-1
Lorenzo Musetti has won four of his last five matches. This week in Rome, Musetti won against Virtanen in straight sets in the opening round. He offered no breakpoints. The Italian won against Nakashima 6-4 6-3 in the third round. This time, Musetti offered only one breakpoint and saved it. Today in the 1/8-Finals, Musetti defeated Medvedev in tight straight sets.
Alexander Zverev has won four of his last five matches. Zverev is the second seed this week in Rome. He is the defending champion in Rome. Last season, Zverev defeated Jarry in the final in straight sets. Today, in the 1/8-Finals, he defeated Fils in straight sets.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Musetti is the slight underdog in this matchup, but we disagree. He always delivers his best tennis on clay courts. On the other hand, Zverev played well this week. However, he struggled under pressure this season. We believe he will again fumble under pressure as he did last year against Musetti at the Olympic Games.
That being said, Musetti winning is a value bet.
Main Photo Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports
