ATP Masters 1000 Rome 1/16-Finals
Fils – Tsitsipas: 11.05.2025 11:00 CEST
H2H: 3-0
Arthur Fils has won three of his last five matches. His last match before ATP Rome was in Madrid, where he lost in the opening round match against Comesana in straight sets. In Rome, the Frenchman won the opening round match against Griekspoor in straight sets this week. Last season in Rome, Muller stopped him in the second round.
Stefanos Tsitsipas has won three of his last five matches. His last match before ATP Rome was in Madrid, where he lost against Musetti in the third round. This week in Rome, Tsitsipas won against Muller in straight sets. Last season in Rome, Tsitsipas lost against Jarry in the quarterfinals.
Best Bet to Make
The bookies say this will be a 50-50 matchup, but we disagree. Fils played his best tennis in the opening round against Griekspoor. He is a better clay-court player than Tsitsipas, and we expect him to win.
That being said, Fils winning is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Arthur Fils winning @1.73 @bet365
Popyrin – Medvedev: 11.05.2025 11:00 CEST
H2H: 1-3
Alexei Popyrin has lost three of his last five matches. Last week in Aix en Provence, Popyrin lost in the opening round of the Challenger tournament against Wawrinka in three sets. This week in Rome, Popyrin won against Taberner in straight sets in the opening round. Last season in Rome, Popyrin lost in the opening round against Medjedovic in straight sets.
Daniil Medvedev has won three of his last five matches. This week in Madrid, he won the opening match against Norrie in straight sets. Last season in Madrid, he reached the quarterfinals but lost against Ruud in straight sets.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Medvedev is the favourite in this matchup, but we disagree. Both players do not prefer clay courts. Their past two head-to-head meetings were tight, and we expect a similar outcome tomorrow.
That being said, Popyrin covering the games handicap is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Alexei Popyrin +3.5 games handicap @1.80 @bet365
Moutet – Rune: 11.05.2025 12:30 CEST
H2H: 3-1
Corentin Moutet has won three of his last five matches. This is his fifth appearance in Rome. In the opening main draw round, Moutet beat Hijikata in three sets. In the second round, Humbert retired mid-match against Moutet.
Holger Rune has won four of his last five matches. This week in Rome, Rune won the opening match against Comesana in three tight sets after spending almost three hours on the court. Last season in Rome, Rune lost in the third round against Baez in three tight sets.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Moutet is the big underdog in this matchup, but we disagree. He leads 3-1 in head-to-head meetings against Rune. On the other hand, Rune spent almost three hours on the court in the opening round, so we expect Moutet to keep this match tight.
That being said, Moutet covering the games handicap is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Corentin Moutet +4.5 games handicap @1.91 @bet365
Main Photo Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
