Iga Swiatek was ranked as the World No. 1 less than a year ago, but is projected to dip to her lowest WTA ranking since 2022 at the Italian Open.
Swiatek lost the No. 1 ranking to Aryna Sabalenka towards the end of last season and appears to be losing ground in her quest to regain it.
What’s even more worrying for the Pole, who has yet to win a WTA title this season, is her ranking slide, which is expected to take shape in Rome if she doesn’t win the tournament.
Swiatek is currently ranked World No. 2 ahead of Coco Gauff. However, she will fall to fourth spot in the live rankings because she drops the full 1000 points in Rome after winning the title last season.
Swiatek’s points tally will stand at 5,773 (again, this is the live rankings tally), which would be lower than Gauff’s 6,213 and Jessica Pegula’s 6,273. Even with a successful title defense, Swiatek could lose the No. 2 ranking depending on Gauff and Pegula’s progress in the tournament (one of them would need to reach the final in this case).
How Low Could Iga Swiatek Drop Post-Rome?
The worst-case scenario for Swiatek would be another crashing loss before the final, which will most likely see her ranking drop to fourth for the first time since March 2022, when she broke into the Top 5.
It’s looking like an insurmountable challenge for Swiatek to unseat Sabalenka at the top, and several critics have begun questioning her partnership with Belgian coach Wim Fisette, who joined the team in the closing months of the 2024 season but has overseen Swiatek’s least productive period in titles since she rose to No. 1.
The ranking slide would be detrimental for Swiatek’s prospects at the French Open. Failure to defend her title in Rome would complete a full year since she last won a tournament. It would also mean that Swiatek could face a potentially treacherous draw at the clay-court Grand Slam, which she has dominated in the last three years.
The Roland Garros seedings will come into play after the conclusion of the WTA 1000 in Rome, and if Swiatek is the fourth seed, then she might draw Sabalenka in the semifinals.
Main Photo Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports
