ATP Masters 1000 Madrid 1/8-Finals
Tiafoe – Arnaldi: 30.04.2025 13:00 CEST
H2H: 1-0
Frances Tiafoe has won three of his last five matches. This week in Madrid, the American was 7-5, 3-1 up, when Darderi retired due to an injury. In the third round, Tiafoe defeated Muller in straight sets. He lost in the second round against Cachin last season in Madrid. Tiafoe has never made it past the third round.
Matteo Arnaldi has won three of his last five matches. This week in Madrid, the young Italian defeated Coric in three tight sets after playing almost three hours in the opening round. He upset Djokovic in the second round, winning in straight sets. Dzumhur had no answer for the Italian’s game yesterday. Arnaldi won 6-3 6-4.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, this will be an almost 50-50 matchup, but we disagree. Arnaldi will have two days rest for this matchup, which is crucial. He is fully confident after defeating Djokovic in straight sets. Arnaldi is a better clay-court player than Tiafoe, and we expect him to win.
That being said, Arnaldi winning is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Matteo Arnaldi winning @1.73 @bet365
Draper – Paul: 30.04.2025 16:00 CEST
H2H: 3-2
Jack Draper has won three of his last five matches. Draper won the opening match against Griekspoor this week in Madrid in straight sets. He offered and saved only one breakpoint. Berrettini retired against Draper in the third round after losing the opening set 6-7.
Tommy Paul has won four of his last five matches. This week in Madrid, Paul won the opening match against Fonseca in two tiebreaks. He was great under pressure, saving ten of the eleven breakpoints. The young American saved two consecutive set points in the opening set. In the third round, Paul defeated Khachanov in three tight sets.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Draper is the slight favourite in this matchup, but we disagree. He never had any success on clay. On the other hand, Paul played his best tennis against Fonseca and Khachanov. We expect him to be a better player tomorrow and win.
That being said, Paul winning is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Tommy Paul winning @2.38 @bet365
Dimitrov – Diallo: 30.04.2025 19:30 CEST
H2H: first meeting
Grigor Dimitrov has won four of his last five matches. He had a favourable draw this week in Madrid and won both matches in straight sets.
Gabriel Diallo has won four of his last five matches. Diallo failed to qualify for the main draw tournament this week in Madrid. However, with several players withdrawing from the tournament, Diallo entered the main draw as a lucky loser. Today, the Canadian defeated Norrie in the third round after losing the opening set 2-6.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Dimitrov is the slight favourite in this matchup, and we agree. He is a way more experienced player than Diallo, which is crucial at the Masters 1000 level. Dimitrov dominated both matches this week, and we expect him to continue in that fashion tomorrow.
That being said, Dimitrov covering the games handicap is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Grigor Dimitrov -2.5 games handicap @1.80 @bet365
Main Photo Credit: Mike Frey-USA TODAY Sports
