The Round of 16 of the WTA Madrid Open was supposed to have been played on April 28th, but a massive blackout in Spain and Portugal has left the tournament and its competitors in limbo for now. The plan is to pick up where they left off before the outage. The matches that were supposed to be played will be played, and the players should all enjoy the rest and the opportunity to recenter themselves. Here are my best bets for those matches.
WTA Madrid Open
Svitolina – Sakkari: Time 14:30
H2H: 2-2
Elina Svitolina and Maria Sakkari are 2-2 in their four previous meetings. The last time they met was the 2021 Tokyo Olympics, also in the Round of 16. While it’s been about four years since they last played, these two ladies always put on a show when they meet. Of their four previous matches, three have been pushed to the very limit of the third set. Svitolina is 148-75 on clay, Sakkari is 180-109. Svitolina is having a tremendous 2025 campaign at 20-6 overall, while Sakkari languishes behind her at a paltry 10-13.
Best Bet to Make
There’s a reason that the books have Svitolina as a favorite. Svitolina is 9-1 in her last ten matches with a tournament victory at Rouen and back-to-back wins at the Billie Jean King Cup. Sakkari is 6-4 but hasn’t won a singles tournament since 2023, and even then, she only won a single tournament. There aren’t a whole lot of reasons to bet on Sakkari in this match, but she always plays Svitolina tough and close, so I don’t think Sakkari taking a set is out of the question.
That being said, Svitolina winning @2:1 is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Svitolina 2:1 @4.1 @Interwetten
Uchijima – Alexandrova: Time 14:00
H2H: 0-0
Moyuka Uchijima and Ekaterina Alexandrova meet for the first time in Spain. Alexandrova has made at least the semifinals of her last two tournaments and boasts an 8-2 record in her last ten matches. Not to be outdone, Uchijima is also 8-2 in her last ten matches, but her best showing during that time is a quarterfinal appearance in Rouen. Both ladies perform well on clay; Uchijima is 72-32 all-time, and Alexandrova checks in at 183-114 on clay for her career.
Best Bet to Make
The books have Alexandrova as the favorite, but they don’t hate Uchijima. I agree that Alexandrova is the favorite here, but I don’t think moneyline is the way to go. Most of the bets concerning a correct score aren’t worth touching, but Alexandrova 2:0 is mouthwatering. Uchijima has been playing really well, and she was not expected to get past Jessica Pegula in the third round. Alexandrova is playing too well and is too good on clay for her to allow a second upset.
That being said, Alexandrova winning 2:0 is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Alexandrova winning 2:0 @2.00 @Bet365
Kostyuk – Potapova: Time 21:30
H2H: 1-2
Anastasia Potapova and Marta Kostyuk met three times before Madrid. Kostyuk dominated most outings, but Potapova took their second match in Birmingham, UK. This will be their first match-up on clay. Both ladies have nearly identical career records on clay. Kostyuk is 75-36, Potapova is 73-39, and neither lady has lost on clay in 2025. Potapova is 6-4 in her last ten matches, Kostyuk is 7-3.
Best Bet to Make
The books have Potapova as a slight favorite, and I agree. Potapova has had a lot of surface-level success as of late, but she hasn’t put together any deep runs outside of her tournament victory in Romania back in February. Kostyuk is also looking for a bit of consistency and would take any tournament victory she could get her hands on. Due to recent form, I think Kostyuk might be able to pull the upset here. The line might not blow your socks off, but Potapova moneyline is probably the safe call here.
That being said, Potapova winning is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Potapova winning @1.8 @Bet365
Main Photo Credit: Mike Frey-USA TODAY Sports
