Alex de Minaur will play his first match of the week at the ATP Madrid Open. The sixth seed will be one of the favorites for the title after making a productive start to the European clay-court swing in his last two tournaments. We predict four of Saturday’s matches in this article. Who will advance to the next round?
ATP Madrid Day 4 Predictions
Jacob Fearnley vs Tomas Machac
Head-to-head: first meeting
Despite his limited experience on clay, Fearnley has wasted no time in getting a few wins under his belt this month. It all started in Barcelona where he entered the main draw as a lucky loser and scored his first win on the surface when he upset Roberto Carballes Baena. This week, he’s taken the long route again, but conserved some of his energy with a couple of straight-set wins to reach the second round. But this will be a massive step up for the four-time ATP Challenger champion. Machac will leverage his extensive experience and clay court mastery to get his Madrid campaign off to flier.
Prediction: Machac in 2
Matteo Berrettini vs Marcos Giron
Head-to-head: Giron 2-0 Berrettini
Berrettini is one of the smartest players on tour. His game is built for fast surfaces, but ironically he has a better winning record on clay than on hard courts. This will be his first appearance in four years at the Madrid Open (he lost to Alexander Zverev in the 2021 final). Giron, by contrast, works for the grind and prefers to play with so much intensity and effort. That combination is unlikely to pay off at altitude where Berretini’s powerful serve should set him to a comfortable win.
Prediction: Berrettini in 2
Cameron Norrie vs Jiri Lehecka
Head-to-head: Norrie 3-1 Lehecka
The head-to-head is in favor of Norrie who has triumphed in three of four meetings on hard courts. He needed four match points to overcome Lehecka in their last clash at Indian Wells in early March. Norrie’s best response is to lure Lehecka into extended rallies and win ugly. That way, his topspin forehand and flat backhand tend to have the desired impact. However, if Lehecka shortens the points and maximizes in using the full width of the court to go for winners, he’ll succeed in outmuscling the former British No. 1.
Prediction: Lehecka in 2
Alex de Minaur vs Lorenzo Sonego
Head-to-head: De Minaur 3-0 Sonego
This will be the fourth career meeting between de Minaur and Sonego and it will be their first on clay. The Australian won all three previous meetings, once on indoor hard court and twice on grass. Sonego has taken just one set from de Minaur but he’s also lost a couple of close sets in the head-to-head. That said, the Italian is likely to fall short. De Minaur has quickly emerged as one of the Tour’s early pacesetters on the European clay swing with a semifinal and a quarterfinal to his list of achievements this season. Expect him to keep his unstained record against Sonego intact.
Prediction: De Minaur in 3
Main Photo Credit: Mike Frey-USA TODAY Sports
