The WTA Madrid party enters the third day with the big guns coming on, including the red-hot Jelena Ostapenko, fresh from her Stuttgart exploits, to face her compatriot Anatasija Sevasstova in what should be a thrilling encounter. Several other exciting matches are in store, but who will advance?
WTA Madrid Day 3 Predictions
Jelena Ostapenko vs Anastasija Sevastova
Head–to–Head: Ostapenko 0 vs 2 Sevastova
The battle of the Latvians will see veteran Anastasija Sevastova come up against her red-hot compatriot Jelena Ostapenko, who is still reeling from a remarkable week in Stuttgart, where she, against all odds, defeated three top #10 players, including the top #2, to win the title in Germany.
Sevastova earned a convincing straight-sets win over Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova in her opener and hasn’t lost against her younger compatriot before. This is a tricky tie for Ostapenko, but she is playing arguably the best tennis of her career, and it will be truly shocking if she bottles this.
Prediction: Ostapenko in 2
Donna Vekic vs Hailey Baptiste
Head–to–Head: First Meeting
Donna Vekic received a first-round bye as the 19th seed, and this will be her sixth appearance in the main draw of the tournament in Madrid, where she has only advanced to the last 16 once. In the past two years, she has been eliminated in the second round of this event. Her performance has varied throughout the season. After beginning the year with three consecutive losses, Vekic managed to register three victories at the Australian Open to reach the fourth round. However, she then experienced another losing streak of four matches before surprising Emma Navarro at Indian Wells, where she advanced to the second week. She has lost her last three matches, starting her clay-court season in Stuttgart last week with a straight-set loss to fellow Croatian Jana Fett.
Unseeded Hailey Baptiste blasted 44 winners to upset Sorana Cirstea in her Madrid opener in a three-set battle that lasted two and a half hours, to secure her first-ever main draw win in this tournament.
Although Vekic has more potential with her powerful ball striking, she comes into this match lacking form, having already accumulated ten losses this season. Her confidence appears to be waning, and she is surprisingly dropping too many sets. In contrast, Baptiste is climbing the rankings and achieving consistent victories. Based on this, we’re backing the American to secure a huge win that will take her to the third round.
Prediction: Baptiste in 3
Magdalena Frech vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro
Head–to–Head: Frech 1 vs 1 Bouzas Maneiro
Jessica Bouzas Maneiro has shown potential in both of her clay-court tournaments this season. She notched impressive victories over Maria Sakkari and Varvara Gracheva in Rouen before being decisively defeated by Elina Svitolina, the eventual champion.
In her first-round match here, she comfortably defeated Mayar Sherif without facing a single break point.
Her opponent, Magdalena Frech, has struggled this season since reaching the third round of the Australian Open and faced a straightforward defeat against Jessica Pegula in the second round of the Stuttgart Open.
The two players have faced off twice before, splitting the wins evenly, with Frech taking their most recent match in Cincinnati last year.
This will be a close encounter, but Bouzas Maneiro has an edge in momentum on clay compared to the Pole, and she should ride on it to the next round.
Prediction: Bouzas Maneiro in 3
Belinda Bencic vs Clara Tauson
Head–to–Head: Bencic 0 vs 1 Tauson
Belinda Bencic secured her first victory on clay since 2023, decisively defeating Zeynep Sonmez in straight sets to set up a first meeting against Clara Tauson.
Tauson didn’t get off to a good start on clay this season, suffering a first-round defeat at the Stuttgart Open against Anastasia Potapova, despite having a match point in the second set. She did better in February, though, reaching the semi-finals at the Linz Open and then advancing to the final in Dubai, only to lose to Mirra Andreeva. She secured the biggest victory of her career by defeating world number one Aryna Sabalenka in the round of 16.
The two have never competed against each other on clay, but they did meet in Doha three years ago, where Tauson emerged victorious after a three-set match. A close match is anticipated between the two, but I believe Bencic, who looked very solid in her opener against the in-form Zeynep Sonmez, will carry the day and make it to the next round.
Prediction: Bencic in 3
Main Photo Credit: Mike Frey-Imagn Images
