ATP 500 Barcelona 1/8-Finals
Martinez – Fils: 16.04.2025 11:00 CEST
H2H: 1-2
Pablo Martinez has won three of his last five matches. Last week in Monte Carlo, Martinez lost against Borges in the second round. This week in Barcelona, he won the opening round match against Nakashima in three tight sets after spending over three hours on the court.
Arthur Fils has won four of his last five matches. Last week in Monte Carlo, he lost against Alcaraz in the quarterfinals. Today in Barcelona, the Frenchman defeated Carreno-Busta in straight sets. He saved two set points in the opening set.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Fils is the favourite in this matchup, and we agree. Martinez will be fatigued coming into this match. On the other hand, Fils is in great form and enjoys playing on clay. He hopes for a solid result this week to reach the top 10. We expect him to win easily.
That being said, Fils winning in straight sets is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Arthur Fils winning 2-0 @1.67 @bet365
Rune – Baez: 16.04.2025 12:30 CEST
H2H: 2-3
Holger Rune has lost three of his last five matches. This week in Barcelona, Rune won the opening-round match against Ramos-Vinolas in straight sets. It is his second appearance in Barcelona. In his debut campaign 2019, Rune lost against Ramos-Vinolas in three tight sets.
Sebastian Baez has won three of his last five matches. This week in Barcelona, Baez defeated Dzumhur in straight sets. He trailed 3-5 in the second set but won four consecutive games and closed the match. Last season in Barcelona, Baez lost in the second round against Arnaldi.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Rune is the favourite in this matchup, but we disagree. He had mild discomfort last week in Monte Carlo when he retired mid-match against Borges. Rune also struggled against Ramos-Vinolas in the opening round in Barcelona. Baez is a clay-court specialist, and we expect him to be a better player.
That being said, Baez winning is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Sebastian Baez winning @2.30 @bet365
Djere – Alcaraz: 17.04.2025 Time TBA
H2H: 0-1
Laslo Djere has won four of his last five matches. This week in Barcelona, Djere qualified for the main draw tournament. In the opening main draw round, the Serb defeated Rinderknech after losing the opening set 6-7.
Carlos Alcaraz has won six straight matches. Last week in Monte Carlo, Alcaraz won the title, defeating Musetti in the final. In the opening round in Barcelona, the Spaniard defeated Quinn in straight sets. He has won back-to-back titles in Barcelona in 2022 and 2023.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Djere is the big underdog in this matchup, but we disagree. He played his best tennis in the second and third sets against Rinderknech. On the other hand, Alcaraz was far from his best level in the opening round against Quinn. We expect Djere to keep this match tight.
That being said, Djere covering the games handicap is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Laslo Djere +5.5 games handicap @2.10 @bet365
Main Photo Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports
