It promises to be an entertaining ATP Monte Carlo final between Carlos Alcaraz and Lorenzo Musetti. Alcaraz hopes to win a sixth Masters 1000 title, while Musetti seeks his first. As always, we here at LWOT give our prediction and analysis, but which player do you think will win the title?
ATP Monte Carlo Final Prediction
Carlos Alcaraz vs Lornezo Musetti
Head-to-head: Alcaraz 3-1 Musetti
Alcaraz has reached the final without being at his best for lengthy periods. He defeated Francisco Cerundolo and Arthur Fils in three sets and Daniel Altmaier and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in straight sets. Musetti recovered from losing the first set in four triumphs against Bu Yunchaokete, Jiri Lehecka, Stefanos Tsitsipas, and Alex de Minaur in the semifinal. His other win was against countryman Matteo Berrettini.
Musetti’s sole victory against Alcaraz came in a clay court final at the 2022 Hamburg Open. However, the four-time Grand Slam champion easily won their last seven sets since, including a hammering at the 2023 French Open. Alcaraz ruthlessly attacked Musetti’s one-handed backhand in those meetings to great effect. The Italian was routinely pushed back deep in the court, and his backhand’s high net clearance allowed Alcaraz to run around his and hit forehands consistently.
Mitigating that will not be easy for Musetti. The slow conditions in Monte-Carlo allow him more time to place his backhand, but it also gives Alcaraz more chances to hit forehands. That makes Musetti’s forehand and serve even more pivotal. There is no realistic path to victory for the world No. 16 without winning the battle of the forehands. Achieving that against Alcaraz is much easier said than done, but Musetti needs to find a way to do it.
Musetti could also find it challenging to recover from a grueling battle against de Minaur, decided in a final-set tiebreak. As the heavy underdog, he has some freedom, but that is unlikely to be enough to disrupt Alcaraz enough. The dynamics of this matchup suit the former world No. 1, and it would be surprising if he did not win a first title in Monte Carlo.
Prediction: Alcaraz in 2
Main photo credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images
