ATP 250 Houston 1/8-Finals
Denolly – Kovacevic: 02.04.2025 Time TBA
H2H: 1-0
Corentin Denolly has won four of his last five matches. This week in Houston, Denolly qualified for the main draw tournament, winning both qualifying matches in three sets. In the opening main draw round, Denolly won against Holt in two tiebreaks.
Aleksandar Kovacevic has won four of his last five matches. Kovacevic upset Etcheverry in the opening round this week in Houston, winning in straight sets. He was great under pressure, saving all four breakpoints.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Kovacevic is the favorite in this matchup, and we agree. He is way more experienced than Denolly at playing at the highest level. The Frenchman spent most of his career playing at the ITF level. On the other hand, Kovacevic is an established ATP tour player. His experience will prevail in this match.
That being said, Kovacevic winning in straight sets is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds. Aleksandar Kovacevic winning 2-0 @1.67 @bet365
Tabilo – Brooksby: 02.04.2025 Time TBA
H2H: first meeting
Alejandro Tabilo has lost three of his last five matches. His last match was in Miami, where he lost in the third round against Ruud in three tight sets. His last clay court match was in Santiago over a month ago.
Jenson Brooskby has won three of his last five matches. This week in Houston, Brooskby qualified for the main draw tournament. His toughest challenge happened in the opening qualifying round. In the opening main draw round, Brooksby served great, not offering any breakpoints, winning 6-4 6-4 against Daniel.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, this will be a 50-50 matchup, but we disagree. The conditions in Houston are perfect for his game. He is an all-around player who grew up playing on clay courts. On the other hand, besides winning one challenger title on clay, Brooskby never had any success on clay courts. We expect Tabilo to be a better player and win.
That being said, Tabilo winning is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Alejandro Tabilo winning @1.91 @bet365
Paul – Garin: 02.04.2025 Time TBA
H2H: 1-3
Tommy Paul has won three of his last five matches. His last match was in Miami, where Cerundolo upset him in the third round. He has never made it past the second round in Houston.
Christian Garin has won four of his last five matches. This week in Houston, he won the opening-round match against Ritschard in straight sets. He served great throughout the match, not offering any breakpoints. The Chilean won the title here in 2019. In his last appearance in 2023, Garin was stopped in the quarterfinals.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Garin is the underdog in this matchup, but we disagree. Paul never had any success in Houston. On the other hand, Garin won the title here in 2019 and enjoys playing in Houston. We expect him to keep this match tight.
That being said, Garin covering the games handicap is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Christian Garin +3.5 games handicap @1.83 @bet365
Main Photo Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
