ATP Masters 1000 Miami semifinals
Djokovic – Dimitrov: 28.03.2025 20:00 CEST
H2H: 13-1
Novak Djokovic has won four of his last five matches. This week in Miami, Djokovic won all four matches in straight sets. In the 1/8-Finals, the Serb dominated against Musetti in straight sets, losing only four games. Korda also had no answer for Serb’s game in the quarterfinals. He was 5-2 up in the second set, but Djokovic turned it around and won in straight sets.
Grigor Dimitrov has won four of his last five matches. This week in Miami, Dimitrov had his first tough challenge in the third round against Khachanov, where he lost the opening set. Dimitrov defeated Cerundolo in three tight sets in the quarterfinals after spending almost three hours on the court. He trailed 0-3 in the deciding set and even saved one match point.
Best Bets to Make
Main Bet
According to the bookies, Djokovic is the favorite in this matchup, and we agree. He is playing his best tennis this week in Miami and aims to get his 100th ATP title. On the other hand, Dimitrov felt terrible after his quarterfinal clash against Dimitrov and was visibly fatigued. We expect Djokovic to dominate in this match and win again without dropping a set.
That being said, Djokovic winning in straight sets is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Novak Djokovic winning 2-0 @1.73 @bet365
Second Bet
We expect Djokovic to dominate this matchup from the start until the end. In his quarterfinal match against Korda, Djokovic won at least one point in each game in the first set, and we expect the same outcome tonight as well. He is the best returner in the world, and Dimitrov will be tired.
That said, Djokovic winning at least one point in every game in set 1 is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Djokovic to win 1+ points in every game in set 1 @-120 @FanDuel
Mensik – Fritz: 29.03.2025 00:00 CEST
H2H: 0-1
Jakub Mensik has won five straight matches. This week in Miami, he upset Draper in the second round. Machac retired from his 1/8-final match against Mensik. Fils had no answer for Mensik’s game in the quarterfinals. Mensik won in straight sets without any problems.
Taylor Fritz has won four of his last five matches. He won the first three matches this week in Miami in straight sets. In the third round, Fritz defeated Shapovalov in just over an hour. Fritz defeated Berrettini in three tight sets in the quarterfinals after spending almost three hours on the court. Fritz was the quarterfinalist in Miami in 2023. Last season, Seyboth Wild upset him in the second round.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Mensik is the underdog in this matchup, but we disagree. He had a walkover in the 1/8-Finals and dominated in the quarterfinals. On the other hand, Fritz spent almost three hours in a three-set thriller against Berrettini. We expect Mensik to be better rested for this matchup and keep this match close.
That being said, Mensik covering the games handicap is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Jakub Mensik +2.5 games handicap @2.00 @bet365
Main Photo Credit: Mike Frey-USA TODAY Sports
