ATP Masters 1000 Miami 1/8-Finals
Machac – Mensik: 26.03.2025 00:00 CEST
H2H: 1-0
Tomas Machac has won four of his last five matches. Machac defeated Opelka in the third round in straight sets this week in Miami. He served fantastic, but he did not offer any breakpoints. Last season in Miami, Sinner stopped Machac in the quarterfinals.
Jakub Mensik has won four of his last five matches. This week in Miami, Mensik upset Draper in the second round. In the third round, Safiullin had no answer for Mensik’s game. The Czech won in straight sets, not offering any breakpoints. This is his debut appearance in the main draw tournament.
Best Bets to Make
Main Bet
According to the bookies, this will be a 50-50 matchup, but we disagree. Machac is more experienced than Mensik, playing at the Masters 1000 level. When they met this season in Acapulco, Machac won in three tight sets. His experience was crucial in that match, and we expect a similar outcome tonight.
That being said, Machac winning is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Tomas Machac winning @1.91 @bet365
Second Bet
Mensik served great this week in Miami. He averaged around 20 aces in the opening three matches. We expect a tight match with many points. He will probably serve around 20 aces once again, but we are going with the safer option: at least 15 aces.
That said, Mensik serving at least 15 aces is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Jakub Mensik 15+ aces @-195 @FanDuel
Zverev – Fils: 26.03.2025 01:30 CEST
H2H: 3-1
Alexander Zverev has won three of his last five matches. This week in Miami, Zverev won both matches in straight sets. In the third round, he defeated Thompson in straight sets. Last season in Miami, Zverev was stopped in the semifinals, losing against Dimitrov. He was the finalist here in 2018, but he has never won the title.
Arthur Fils has won four of his last five matches. Fils upset Tiafoe in the third round this week in Miami, winning in three tight sets. He served great, hitting 21 aces. It is his second appearance in Miami. In his debut campaign last season, Fils lost in the opening round against Arnaldi.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Zverev is the favorite in this matchup, but we disagree. He has been in terrible form since the Australian Open. On the other hand, Fils had a solid run in Indian Wells, reaching the quarterfinals. This week in Miami, Fils played great under pressure against Tiafoe. In their previous head-to-head match, Zverev won in three tight sets on a hard court. We expect Fils to keep this match tight.
That being said, Fils covering the games handicap is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Arthur Fils +3.5 games handicap @1.73 @bet365
Main Photo Credit: Robert Deutsch-Imagn Images
