ATP Masters 1000 Miami 1/32-Finals
Arnaldi – Machac: 22.03.2025 Time TBA
H2H: 0-2
Matteo Arnaldi has won three of his last five matches. This week in Miami, Arnaldi won against Wu in the opening round in three tight sets after spending almost three hours on the court. Last season in Miami, Machac stopped him in the fourth round.
Tomas Machac has won four of his last five matches. A few weeks ago, Machac won the title in Acapulco, winning against Davidovich Fokina in the final. His last match was in Indian Wells, where he retired mid-match against Watanuki in his opening match.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Machac is the favorite in this matchup, and we agree. Arnaldi has struggled with his form for the last couple of weeks. He had a tough opening match against Wu. On the other hand, Machac is in great form, and we expect him to dominate in this matchup.
That being said, Machac winning in straight sets is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Tomas Machac winning 2-0 @2.25 @bet365
Bergs – Rublev: 22.03.2025 Time TBA
H2H: 0-1
Zizou Bergs has won three of his last five matches. This is his third appearance in Miami. In the opening round, Bergs won against Borges in straight sets. He was great under pressure, saving eight out of ten breakpoints.
Andrey Rublev has won three of his last five matches. His last match was in Indian Wells, where he lost against Arnaldi in straight sets. This will be his tenth appearance in Miami. His biggest result came in 2021 when he reached the semifinals.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Rublev is the favorite in this matchup, but we disagree. After winning the ATP 500 title in Doha, Rublex exited in the opening round in both tournaments against the underdogs. We expect Bergs to put up a big fight and win at least one set.
That said, Bergs winning at least one set is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Zizou Bergs +1.5 sets @1.93 @betathome
Berrettini – Gaston: 22.03.2025 Time TBA
H2H: 2-0
Matteo Berrettini has won three of his last five matches. His last match was in Indian Wells, where he lost to Tsitsipas in the third round. Last season in Miami, he lost against Murray in the opening round. He has never made it past the second round here.
Hugo Gaston has won three of his last five matches. This week in Miami, Nishioka retired in the opening round match against Gaston. The Frenchman failed to qualify for the Miami main draw tournament last season. He has never made it past the third round.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Berrettini is the big favorite in this matchup, but we disagree. Looking historically, he consistently underperformed in Miami. He has not had any remarkable results this season, and we expect him to struggle against Gaston.
That said, Gaston winning at least one set is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Hugo Gaston +1.5 sets @2.05 @betathome
Main Photo Credit: Mike Frey-USA TODAY Sports
