ATP Phoenix Challenger semifinals
Borges – Bublik: 15.03.2025 21:30 CEST
H2H: 1-0
Nuno Borges has won three of his last five matches. This week in Phoenix, Borges easily won both matches in straight sets. In the quarterfinals, Smith had no chance against Borges. Last week in Indian Wells, Borges lost in the second round against Dimitrov in straight sets. He is preparing in Phoenix for the upcoming Masters 1000 in Miami.
Alexander Bublik has won three of his last five matches. This week in Phoenix, he won all three matches in three tight sets. Bublik lost the opening set against Moutet 2-6 in the quarterfinals but turned it around. Watanuki upset Bublik in Indian Wells last week. It has been a disappointing season for the Kazakh so far.
Best Bets to Make
Main Bet
According to the bookies, Borges is the favorite in this matchup, and we agree. He has been lethal in both matches this week. On the other hand, Bublik struggled in all three matches. We expect Borges to continue his winning streak and win again in straight sets.
That being said, Borges winning in straight sets is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Nuno Borges winning 2-0 @2.20 @bet365
Second Bet
We believe this will be a one-sided match. Bublik is usually unmotivated at the Challenger Tour level. If Borges breaks his serve early in the set, he will probably win easily. We expect Borges to dominate completely today.
That being said, Borges covering the games handicap is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Nuno Borges -5.5 games handicap @+260 @FanDuel
Fonseca – Nishikori: 15.03.2025 23:00 CEST
H2H: first meeting
Joao Fonseca has won four of his last five matches. Last week in Indian Wells, Fonseca lost against Draper in the second round in straight sets. This week in Phoenix, Fonseca had his biggest challenge in the second round against Struff, where he dropped a set. He dominated against Gaston in the quarterfinals, winning in straight sets.
Kei Nishikori has won four of his last five matches. This week in Phoenix, Nishikori won the opening round match against Nardi in straight sets. Kukushkin retired mid-match in the second round against Nishikori. In the quarterfinals, Nishikori won against Cobolli in three sets after spending over two hours on the court.
Best Bets to Make
Main Bet
According to the bookies, Fonseca is the slight favorite in this matchup, and we agree. He is one of the best upcoming talents, and we expect him to be dominant against Nishikori. The former US Open finalist currently has no weapons for Fonseca’s game.
That being said, Fonseca covering the games handicap is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Joao Fonseca -3.5 games handicap @1.91 @bet365
Second Bet
Fonseca tends to start his matches aggressively. This week in Phoenix, Fonseca broke an opponent’s serve at the beginning of each match. We expect Nishikori to be tired after an exhausting quarterfinal match.
That being said, Fonseca to get the first break is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Joao Fonseca service break number 1 @-182 @FanDuel
Main Photo Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
