ATP 500 Acapulco final
Machac – Davidovich Fokina: 02.03.2025 04:00 CEST
H2H: 1-1
Tomas Machac has won four of his last five matches. The last match he played before the ATP 500 Acapulco was in Dallas two weeks ago. He was stopped in the quarterfinals against Shapovalov in straight sets. So far this season, Tomas has played in the United Cup, at the Australian Open, and in Dallas.
It is his first appearance in Acapulco. In the opening round, as we predicted, Machac won against Mensik in three sets. His experience prevailed in the deciding set, where he was a better player under pressure. Tomas defeated Altmaier in straight sets in the second round, as we predicted. Daniel had his chance in the opening set when he was 4-2 up. The second set was one-sided. As we predicted, Machac defeated Tien in the quarterfinals in straight sets. The first set was a rollercoaster, with both players losing their service games easily. Machac could have closed out the match earlier in the second set, but he lost his serve at 5-4.
Yesterday, in the semifinals, Machac won against Nakashima in three tight sets, as we predicted. Tomas broke Brandon’s serve when he was 5-4 up in the deciding set and closed out the match. Around this time last season, Tomas played in Dubai, losing in the opening main draw round against Bublik in three tight sets. His only previous ATP final was in Geneva last year when he failed against Ruud in straight sets.
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina has won four of his last five matches. Two weeks ago, he played in the final against Kecmanovic in Delray Beach. He was 5-2 up in the deciding set and had consecutive match points, but he fumbled under pressure.
This week in Acapulco, Alejandro won the opening round match against Bellucci after losing the first set 1-6. Alejandro saved four consecutive match points in the second set tiebreak. In the second round, the Spaniard defeated Tiafoe in three sets. He offered no breakpoints in the deciding set. Alejandro defeated Pacheco Mendez in the quarterfinals 6-2 6-2. The Spaniard was a better player from the start until the end. Rodrigo looked scared on the court, and Alejandro was relentless.
Yesterday, in the semifinals, Davidovich Fokina defeated Shapovalov in two tiebreaks. He trailed 3-5 in the opening set but turned it around. Denis had a chance to serve at 6-5 in the second set and win the second set. However, Shapovalov once again fumbled under pressure. The Spaniard gets his third shot tonight at winning his first-ever ATP title. He failed a few weeks ago in the Delray Beach final, where he had consecutive match points against Kecmanovic.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Machac is the slight favorite in this matchup, and we agree. Alejandro is too inconsistent, and his nerves will also play a big part tonight. Machac will play his second ATP final. He has been getting more experienced and consistent over the last couple of months. We expect him to dominate this match and win his first ATP title.
That being said, Machac winning is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Tomas Machac winning @1.67 @bet365
Main Photo Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
