First-round action at the Mexican Open in Acapulco promises a spate of high-quality matches. Former runner-up Tommy Paul faces one of the most dangerous qualifiers in Gabriel Diallo, and No. 2 seed Casper Ruud will play France’s Arthur Rinderknech. We also predict the rest of the day’s matches, including Ben Shelton vs Flavio Cobolli in a separate article. But who will advance at ATP Acapulco?
ATP Acapulco Day 1 Predictions
Learner Tien vs Cameron Norrie
Head-to-head: Norrie 1-0 Tien
Learner Tien weathered through the storm in his second qualifying match against Dusan Lajovic. Although he advanced into the main draw in straight sets, Tien’s serve looked shaky. He was broken four times and averaged slightly over 60% of first-serve points won. Cameron Norrie is not in a happy spot right now, but he defeated the young American when they played in Hong Kong. His experience and great track record of raising his game at this event should be enough to take down the talented Tien.
Prediction: Norrie in 3
Marcos Giron vs Adam Walton
Head-to-head: first meeting
Adam Walton has settled very nicely in the Top 100 in a productive February. He won the Brisbane 3 Challenger and has successfully qualified for his second ATP event of the new season. Walton was dominant in qualifying at the weekend, hammering ten aces past Aleksandar Kovacevic. Marcos Giron will pose a much sterner challenge. The American demands total commitment in every point from opponents and Walton will cough up enough errors in three sets.
Prediction: Giron in 3
Tommy Paul vs Gabriel Diallo
Head-to-head: Paul 1-0 Diallo
Tommy Paul needed a fourth-set tie-breaker to beat Gabriel Diallo at the 2024 US Open. Their sequel should be just as close. Paul is a former finalist in Acapulco but also has three first-round exits to his name, including in the 2024 edition. Diallo was flawless in qualifying for this event. For all of Paul’s dynamism and foot speed, he’ll be limited to very few extended rallies. The Canadian’s pin-point accurate serve and the looseness to play with no pressure could hurt Paul. I fancy an upset.
Prediction: Diallo in 3
Casper Ruud vs Arthur Rinderknech
Head-to-head: Ruud 2-0 Rinderknech
With a 9-2 record for the season, the only thing missing from Casper Ruud’s decent start to the year is a title. He came close in Dallas, where he lost the final to an inspired Denis Shapovalov. Arthur Rinderknech doesn’t have plenty of good things going on right now. The Frenchman has two wins from eight matches, but he’ll always be competitive on hard courts. The hot and humid conditions will turn this into a physical match. Ruud’s heavy topspin will be ideal in this setting.
Prediction: Ruud in 2
Main Photo Credit: Mike Frey – USA TODAY Sports
