It promises to be an entertaining final at the Australian Open with two-time defending champion Aryna Sabalenka set to take on one of the few players who can match her power in Madison Keys. As always, we here at LWOT will be offering our predictions for the final, but will Sabalenka make it a hat-trick of titles or can Keys claim her first Major?
Australian Open Final Predictions
Aryna Sabalenka vs Madison Keys
Jim: Keys has had a superb tournament, capped by her remarkable upset of Iga Swiatek in the semifinals. But Sabalenka has been almost unplayable at Melbourne Park over the last two years. Keys will present the Belarusian with a different challenge, but Sabalenka has demonstrated in the past that she is comfortable going toe-to-toe with fellow big-hitters and more often than not she has come out on top. Expect her to do so again here.
Prediction: Sabalenka in 2
Damian: Keys struggled badly in her only previous Grand Slam final and while she’s coming in with seven more years of experience, it’s not like preforming under that sort of pressure will be easy. But throughout the event it’s the players who try to outhit Sabalenka that tend to push her (Tauson or Pavlyuchenkova) and the American at least has a shot if we assume she’ll be redlining.
Their US Open match two years back should also be treated as a good sign for Keys, even if she ended up losing it. But Sabalenka responds to pressure and adversity so well these days, it would take another special effort from the underdog to take this. It would be one of the most impressive first Grand Slam we’ve ever seen.
Prediction: Sabalenka in 3
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Jordan: This has the potential to be one of the closest women’s Grand Slam finals ever. A few points will decide the match if both women serve and hit their groundstrokes well. I might be letting my heart rule my head, but I am backing Keys to cause an upset. Her level against Swiatek was incredible and Sabalenka rarely faces anyone who has similar firepower. This might be the American’s moment.
Prediction: Keys in 3
Yesh: Sabalenka has looked utterly unbeatable at times this tournament, like in her semifinal match. And she has looked pretty human, too, like in her quarterfinal match. Madison Keys has beaten her before, and probably should have beaten her at the 2023 US Open–certainly the most heartbreaking loss of Keys’ career. Can the American make Sabalenka uncomfortable and pull off a career-defining win?
Honestly, I think the answer is yes. Sabalenka’s serve hasn’t been untouchable this tournament, and Keys’ aggressive returns have been brutal for opponents. Iga Swiatek, in the semifinal, had the reactions and flexibility to neutralize Keys’ returns and protect her serve. I don’t think Sabalenka will be able to do that. Unless her serving is impeccable (which it won’t be), Keys will punish it and break her enough to win. And the American will finish this time.
Prediction: Keys in 2
Ateet: Madison Keys got one of the biggest wins of her life in the semifinals, defeating Iga Swiatek in a thrilling encounter. Keys saved a match point and was more aggressive and brave in crucial moments. She is into her second Grand Slam final and has troubled Sabalenka in the past. However, Sabalenka plays her best tennis on Rod Laver and the conditions favour her because she has more margin on her shots and hits a heavier ball. I still expect a close match, but the world #1 will win her fourth Slam.
Prediction: Sabalenka in 3
Main photo credit: Mike Frey-Imagn Images
