ATP Australian Open 1/8-Finals
Davidovich Fokina – Paul: 19.01.2025 05:00 CEST
H2H: 0-3
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina has won four of his last five matches. In Melbourne, Alejandro won the opening set against Shang 7-6. In the second set, Shang retired due to an injury. In the second round, Alejandro defeated Auger-Aliassime after trailing 0-2. After spending over four hours on the court, Davidovich Fokina turned the match around. Yesterday against Mensik in the third round of the tournament, Alejandro trailed 0-2 against Mensik but turned the match successfully once again. Last year in Melbourne, Alejandro reached the second round, losing against Nuno Borges in straight sets.
Tommy Paul has won four of his last five matches. Last week in Adelaide, Paul reached the semifinals, losing against Auger-Aliassime in three tight sets. Tommy won the opening round match against O’Connell in five tight sets in Melbourne. Paul was a better player under pressure in the deciding fifth set, which is why he won the match. In the second round, Tommy defeated Nishikori after losing the first set 6-7. Kei was tired and only won four games in three sets after winning the first. Yesterday, in the third round, Paul defeated Carballes Baena in straight sets. Last year in Melbourne, Tommy reached the third round, losing against Kecmanovic in five sets.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Paul is the big favorite in this matchup, and we agree. Alejandro has spent much more time on the court than Paul so far in the tournament. We expect Paul to be more rested and a better player tomorrow.
That being said, Paul winning in straight sets is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Tommy Paul winning 3-0 @2.63 @bet365
Draper – Alcaraz: 19.01.2025 05:30 CEST
H2H: 1-2
Jack Draper has won four of his last five matches. In the opening Australian Open round, Draper defeated Navone in five sets after spending four hours on the court. Draper spent over four hours on the court in the second round against Kokkinakis, winning again in five tight sets. In the third round against Vukic, Draper won again in five sets. He trailed 1-2 but won consecutive tiebreaks and turned the match around. Last year in Australia, Draper reached the second round, losing against Tommy Paul in four tight sets.
Carlos Alcaraz has won four of his last five matches. Here in Melbourne, Carlos dominated against Shevchenko in the opening round, winning in easy straight sets. As we predicted, Carlos demolished Nishioka in straight sets in the second round. Alcaraz had a great 2024 season, winning two Grand Slam titles. Yesterday, in the third round, Alcaraz defeated Borges in four comfortable sets, as we had predicted. Last year in Melbourne, Carlos reached the quarterfinals, losing against Zverev in four sets. Alcaraz never had any success in Australia. Reaching the quarterfinals is also his best result in the Australian Open.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Alcaraz is the big favorite in this matchup, and we agree. Jack spent over 16 hours on the court in the first three matches, and we believe that he has no fuel left in his tank. Alcaraz will dominate from the start and win easily.
That being said, Alcaraz covering the games handicap is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Carlos Alcaraz -7.5 games @2.00 @bet365
Main Photo Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports
