We’ll see the end of the second round on Day 5 of the Australian Open, which means 16 exciting men’s matches on the schedule. Who do you think will win on Thursday in Melbourne? As always, our writers share their thoughts on all of the matches. We split the day’s 16 matches between four articles–the other three feature Jannik Sinner vs Tristan Schoolkate, Taylor Fritz vs Cristian Garin, and Gael Monfils vs Daniel Altmaier. Predicting this match are Damian Kust, Tope Oke, and Ateet Shrivastava. Who will reach Round 3?
Australian Open Day 5 Predictions
Alex de Minaur vs Tristan Boyer
Damian:
It was important for Boyer to claim that five-set thriller against Coria no matter how, but this is probably the end of the round. His game has been developing dynamically recently, it’s just a question of what he can do against one of the best defenders in the sport. Seemingly there’s just no way he’ll be consistent enough.
Prediction: De Minaur in 3
Tope:
Alex de Minaur is heavily favored, and the reasons are not far-fetched. De Minaur has been in exceptional form, cruising through the first round with a commanding straight-sets victory over Botic van de Zandschulp. Boyer, meanwhile, is making waves as a rising star after winning three ATP Challenger titles in 2024 and earning his Grand Slam debut through the qualifiers, but this will be a punch above his league.
The Australian is vastly experienced on the big stage and will show his remarkable agility and firepower from the baseline as he advances to the next round in front of his home fans.
Prediction: De Minaur in 3
Ateet:
Alex de Minaur has huge expectations on his shoulder to do well on his home Slam and he looked good in the first round. It will take an outrageously bad performance from the Australian to lose against Tristan Boyer, who was a heavy favourite against Federico Coria but got dragged in a five-setter. That level just won’t do against the world No.8.
Prediction: De Minaur in 3
Denis Shapovalov vs Lorenzo Musetti
Damian:
Musetti isn’t at his best on hard courts, but he survived Arnaldi and Shapovalov is certainly a winnable matchup for him as well. Still, the Canadian has all the tools necessary to rush him in these conditions. It’s all about application and that’s never a certainty with him, but it’s enough for me to call him a slight favorite.
Prediction: Shapovalov in 5
Tope:
Musetti leads their head-to-head record 1-0, having won their previous encounter at the 2024 Indian Wells tournament. Currently ranked 15th, Musetti has shown recent strong form on hard courts, with a 50% win rate this year.
Despite Shapovalov’s powerful style of play, Musetti is the more experienced and talented player, and he should win this encounter that is poised to go right down to the wire.
Prediction: Musetti in 5
Ateet:
Both players had a very tough first-round match and will be happy to win without getting to five sets. Musetti had an up-and-down performance but did well to win the tiebreaks. Shapovalov has more firepower but Musetti has a more reliable one-hander. Shapovalov hit 15 double faults in the first round and won’t get away with it against Musetti if he doesn’t rectify it. Musetti’s serve can be attacked and that’s what Shapovalov will look to do. I am leaning slightly towards the Italian as he can frustrate Shapovalov with his defense and variety.
Prediction: Musetti in 5
Frances Tiafoe vs Fabian Marozsan
Damian:
Tiafoe looked vulnerable in the opening round against Rinderknech and maybe if the Frenchman was in slightly better form, it would have been two unseeded players clashing here. But Marozsan should have a real look at this upset, especially with his ability to rush the opponents and take time away. Not sure Tiafoe will find a response if he’s pushed right now.
Prediction: Marozsan in 4
Tope:
Frances Tiafoe has been plagued by inconsistencies recently, having not won consecutive matches since September. However, he dug deep to get past Arthur Rinderknech, and it remains to be seen if he will have enough reserves to endure another potential five-setter against Fabian Marozsan, who showed some steel to outplay the hugely talented Thiago Seyboth Wild in a match that also went the distance. The Hungarian is a dangerous player when fit; if he can stay on his feet in the Melbourne heat, he has a chance of winning.
Prediction: Marozsan in 5
Ateet:
Tiafoe’s level and focus are hard to judge when he is playing outside of America but he showed some great fight in the first round to get through a tricky match in tough conditions. He looked sick due to the heat but should be fine for this match. Marozsan played a five-setter too in the first round and hit 81 winners in the match. If it’s a day match, the conditions may play a part again for Tiafoe, and I’d go with Marozsan as a slight favourite.
Prediction
Prediction: Marozsan in 5
Holger Rune vs Matteo Berrettini
Damian:
Rune has always done pretty well against Berrettini, even if the two wins last year both came in deciding sets. He has both the defensive skills to extend the points against the Italian, but is also complete enough to pressure the backhand. As long as he finds the right balance in his tactical plan, he might be a tiny favorite here. Should be a great match.
Prediction: Rune in 5
Tope:
Matteo Berrettini and Holger Rune have faced each other thrice, with Berrettini leading their head-to-head 2-1. Their most recent encounter was at the 2024 Shanghai Masters, where Rune won in three sets.
While Berrettini’s powerful serve and forehand make him a formidable opponent on hard courts, Rune’s agility and baseline play have turned potential losses into wins. Given their previous close matches, this Australian Open clash is expected to be highly competitive. That said, I’ll lean to the Italian with the better serve and return to scrape through what will be a nail-biter.
Prediction: Berrettini in 5
Ateet:
This is easily one of the best matches of the second round and should deliver some great tennis. Rune has a great record against Berrettini and won both their matches last year. However, those were close matches and the Italian will fancy his chances as much as Rune. Rune’s serve percentage will be key as he has an advantage against Berrettini’s weaker backhand return. I also like Rune’s clutchness over Berrettini.
Prediction: Rune in 5
Main Photo Credit: Mike Frey-USA TODAY Sports
