Thanks to Novak Djokovic withdrawing from the ATP Finals in Turin, Casper Ruud and Alex De Minaur’s places in the year ending tournament has been confirmed. Here at Last Word on Tennis, we focus on the latter, rating his chances, while analysing the long term implications.
Casper Ruud: ATP Finals success on the horizon?
Previous Campaigns
2024 will be Casper Ruud’s third appearance at the ATP Finals. The Norwegian failed to make the cut last year, but was present in 2021 and 2022.
In 2021, he joined the field seeded eighth after a career-best season, including a memorable run which saw him lift three ATP 250 titles in as many weeks. In his opening match, he lost 7-6 6-2 to Novak Djokovic. Determined to put a losing start behind him, he scored back-to-back victories against Cameron Norrie and Andrey Rublev to set up a mouth-watering tie with Daniil Medvedev in the semifinal.
However, fresh from US Open glory, the Russian would prove too strong in a comfortable 6-4 6-2 victory. Nevertheless, it was a respectable week on his first appearance.
Twelve months later, he would go one better. Matches against Felix Auger-Alliassime and Taylor Fritz would provide little friction, meanwhile a dead rubber against Rafa Nadal saw him lose 7-5, 7-5. In the semifinal, he yet again met Andrey Rublev, with another victory coming his way.
Only Novak Djokovic stood in his way in the final. Ultimately, the Serbian proved to be a challenge too far, but once more it was a successful week overall. The improvements in his serve were clear to see, with the runner-up able to generate an increased number of free points. Unsurprisingly, against the best returner the game has ever seen, this was neutralised.
The question becomes: can he make the last step and lift the title?
2024
It’s been a mixed season for the twenty-five year old. Truthfully, he has somewhat tailed off in the last few months. The year began with a disappointing Australian Open, losing in the third round to Cameron Norrie. After that though, he picked up some form. A finalist at Acapulco and Monte Carlo, plus trophies to celebrate at Barcelona and Geneva, he approached Roland Garros full of confidence.
Unfortunately, he was under the weather against Alexander Zverev, but that marked the end of a solid run to the semifinal. Wimbledon of course was a disappointment, meanwhile the US Open saw him lose to eventual runner up Taylor Fritz in the fourth round. Since SW19, he has failed to make a quarterfinal and had lost five of his last six matches heading into Moselle.
As with always, the draw will be crucial. He is the most out of form player heading into the week. However, he has shown enough on this stage to be considered a threat. The indoor hard court season hasn’t been kind to him, but it only takes a win or two for the picture to change. That said, he does find himself in a tough group and opens his campaign with a difficult assignment against Carlos Alcaraz.
What the Future Holds
Ruud’s chance to win a Grand Slam may have passed. Three finals is impressive, and more than the likes of Stefanos Tsitsipas and Alexander Zverev, but with Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner only getting better, it becomes a difficult picture.
His best chance lies in Paris at Roland Garros, at his peak on clay he is a match for anyone, with Nadal soon to retire and Djokovic not getting any younger or fitter.
However, for that to happen there are elements of his game that he must improve. At times it feels a little one dimensional, so when he can’t dominate with his forehand he has a tendency to hit a wall. His serve, backhand and slice have all improved, but more progress will need to be made, otherwise it’s hard to see him break that ceiling.
Main photo credit: Mike Frey-USA TODAY Sports
