The pictures on social media of Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner, along with their respective teams, sharing a flight from Beijing to Shanghai after their monumental 2024 China Open final clash might suggest that their burgeoning rivalry is far more friendly and far less fraught than some of the greatest men’s tennis rivalries of the past. However, for all the personal warmth that undoubtedly exists between them, there is no doubt that their on-court rivalry is deep and intense, so much so that they are rapidly distancing themselves from other current players and already inviting comparison with the greatest rivalries of the past.
Alcaraz-Sinner Rivalry Set to Dominate
China Open Final Was Another Classic Match
The China Open final, which Alcaraz eventually won 6-7 (6-8), 6-4, 7-6 (7-3) after more than three hours, was another classic match between the pair. Indeed, it was so good that it was almost the three-set equivalent of the greatest match they have ever played, namely the 2022 US Open quarterfinal that Alcaraz also won after five grueling sets, which Mats Wilander, for one, has said is the greatest tennis match he has ever seen.
For much of the Beijing final, it seemed that Sinner would prevail and that his spectacular mental strength, which not only allows him to win so many big points but enables him to keep playing so well while under the shadow of his drug test controversy, would win out over Alcaraz’s more obvious physical attributes, including speed, stamina and sheer explosiveness. However, Alcaraz reminded everyone, including Sinner, that nobody can surge or accelerate during a match like he can. Having been 3-0 down in the final set tie-break and seemingly facing probable defeat, he won the next seven points in a row to win the match and the title.
In fact, this storm-like surge of power, pace and adrenaline from Alcaraz was reminiscent of another remarkable come-from-behind win, albeit in miniature. That was Roger Federer’s astonishing rally from 3-1 down in the final set of the 2017 Australian Open Men’s final against Rafael Nadal when Federer produced arguably the greatest single set (or near-set) of tennis ever seen to win five games in succession and take the title. And given Sinner’s astonishing record in tie-breaks this season (he had won 18 of the last 19 he had played), Alcaraz’s incredible late breakthrough was particularly impressive.
But Is It Really A Classic Rivalry?
Including this China Open triumph, Alcaraz has now won his last three matches against Sinner, all of them after losing the first set and looking at one point as if he was certain to lose. Consequently, some might argue that the Alcaraz-Sinner rivalry is yet to attain classic status and is actually in danger of becoming similar to the Roger Federer-Andy Roddick rivalry of the noughties, whereby Roddick would always give of his best and would always challenge Federer, but would invariably end up losing.
However, Sinner’s head-to-head record against Alcaraz is four wins and six losses, so he has already done far better against the Spaniard than Roddick ever did against Federer (Federer ended up winning that head-to-head battle 21-3). In addition, Sinner has also achieved at least two things that Roddick never did: first, winning two Majors (Roddick only ever won the 2003 US Open); and, secondly, remaining at World No.1 for a prolonged period (Roddick was briefly World No.1 at the end of 2003 after winning the US Open but was soon replaced by Federer).
Consequently, the Alcaraz-Sinner rivalry can already be ranked above Federer-Roddick and indeed most other previous rivalries in men’s tennis in the Open era. In fact, it is arguable that it is already one of the finest rivalries in men’s tennis in the last half-century or so and certainly the finest since the end of the Big Three era.
Alcaraz and Sinner Are Distancing Themselves From Their Contemporaries
Perhaps the over-riding feeling after the China Open final was the near-certainty that Alcaraz and Sinner have now decisively distanced themselves from their contemporaries – the other male players trying to keep up with them on the current ATP Tour. Now that Novak Djokovic is officially in his tennis dotage (he will be 38 next May) and did not win a Major this year for the first time since 2017, it is increasingly likely that he will no longer be able to contend with either Alcaraz or Sinner over five sets at a Slam. Indeed, he has already been comprehensively beaten by them both at Majors this year: by Sinner in the Australian Open semifinal; and by Alcaraz in the Wimbledon final.
Beyond Djokovic, it is hard to see any other current male player consistently challenging Alcaraz or Sinner at the top of the game, let alone beating them (or even one of them). Daniil Medvedev again lost comprehensively to Alcaraz in the China Open semifinal and at the end he even seemed to be accepting of his fate as he laughed and joked with Alcaraz at the net. The near-total collapse of his serving game over the last year or so leaves the lanky Russian more in danger of being surpassed by other players than looking likely to challenge Alcaraz or Sinner.
Beyond Medvedev, the one player of his tennis generation to win a Major, Andrey Rublev and Stefanos Tsitsipas have visibly gone backwards over the last year. And among Alcaraz and Sinner’s own cohort of players, no-one else looks capable of competing with them over three sets, let alone the five sets required in a Major. Holger Rune is still desperately struggling to regain the form he has shown in the past and all the other possible contenders, including Ben Shelton and Arthur Fils, have a long way to go before they can reasonably expect to contend with, let alone defeat, Alcaraz or Sinner in a Major or even perhaps a Masters event.
For The Moment, Alcaraz and Sinner Stand Apart
For the moment, therefore, Alcaraz and Sinner stand apart, as the twin titans of men’s tennis. The great news for tennis fans is that they are likely to meet at least once more this season at one of the three events they are both likely to compete in: the Paris Masters, the ATP Tour Finals and the Davis Cup finals at the end of the season. And the organizers of the Davis Cup, the International Tennis Federation, and indeed tennis fans around the world are already virtually salivating at the prospect of a dream final between Alcaraz’s Spain and Sinner’s Italy, after the two teams were kept apart in the last eight draw.
Beyond that, Alcaraz and Sinner look likely, barring injury or a barely comprehensible loss of form, to continue to challenge each other at the top of men’s tennis into 2025 and indeed for the foreseeable future. All that really remains now is for them to meet in a Major final and to go toe to toe over five sets in one of the sport’s iconic arenas for one of the greatest prizes in tennis. If and when that happens, they will surely ascend to the top table of tennis rivalries and compete with the likes of Borg-McEnroe and “The Trivalry” (between Djokovic, Federer and Nadal) for the title of the greatest ever rivalry in men’s tennis.
Main Photo Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea – USA TODAY Sports
