ATP Olympic Games 3rd place match
Musetti – Auger-Aliassime: 03.08.2024 17:00 CEST
H2H: 2-3
Lorenzo Musetti has won four of his last five matches. Last week in Umag, Musetti reached the final where he lost against Cerundolo in three tight sets as we predicted. Here in Paris, Lorenzo won his first round match just a day after his final match in Umag. Musetti defeated Monfils in straight sets, and looked fit on the court. Monfils made too many unforced errors, so Musetti did not have to work much. After that, in the second round, Lorenzo won against Navone in straight sets yet again. Similar to Monfils, Navone made 30 unforced errors, and fumbled under pressure. In the 1/8-Finals, Lorenzo defeated Fritz in straight sets as we predicted. Lorenzo lost his serve only once, which was at the beginning of the first set. After that, Musetti stepped up his level, and turned the set around. The second set was even up until 5-5 when Lorenzo broke Fritz’s serve and won the match comfortably in straight sets. In the quarterfinals, Lorenzo defeated Zverev in straight sets as we predicted. Musetti won all the important points in the match and deservedly won against the defending champion. Today, in the semifinals, Musetti lost against Djokovic in straight sets.
Felix Auger-Aliassime has won four of his last five matches. Two weeks ago in Gstaad, Auger lost in the quarterfinals against Berrettini in straight sets. Here in Paris, Felix dominated against Giron in the first round, winning in straight sets. Auger had an outstanding serving performance, not offering any breakpoints. In the second round of the tournament, Aliassime defeated Marterer 6-0 6-1. Felix played one of his best matches this season. He only lost one game late in the second set. Other than that, Felix was unstoppable. After that, in the 1/8-Finals, Auger upset Medvedev in straight sets. It was another brilliant serving performance from the Canadian. He did not offer any breakpoints yet again, and served great in the tiebreak. In the quarterfinals, Felix defeated Ruud in three tight sets. Once again, Auger was the underdog, but showed great nerves in crucial moments. Today, in the semifinal, Auger stood no chance against Alcaraz. Carlos was the better player throughout the whole match and won convincingly 6-1 as we predicted. Felix did not have any big results on clay. His biggest result was reaching the final in Madrid, where he lost against Rublev in three tight sets.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, this should be a 50-50 match. Looking at their semifinal performances, Musetti performed better than Auger. Lorenzo is overall a better clay court player, so we believe that he will get the job done against Felix. Musetti had a decent chance against Novak today, but fumbled under pressure when it was crucial. Other than that, Lorenzo played a solid match. On the other hand, Auger played a terrible match and did not show much.
That being said, Musetti winning is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Felix Auger-Aliassime winning @1.80 @bet365
Main Photo Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports
