ATP 250 Umag final
Cerundolo – Musetti: 27.07.2024 20:00 CEST
H2H: 0-2
Francisco Cerundolo has won four of his last five matches. Last week in Hamburg, Cerundolo reached the quarterfinals where he lost against Martinez in three tight sets. Here in Umag, Cerundolo won his first round match against Dodig in easy straight sets. Cerundolo did not offer any breakpoints, and served well throughout the whole match. In the quarterfinals, Francisco had it tough against Sonego. Francisco managed to stay calm in the deciding set tiebreak and won the match in three tight sets. Besides losing his serve twice in the second set, Cerundolo served well throughout the match. In the semifinals, we predicted a tight match between him and Rublev. Francisco won the first set in the tiebreak. Cerundolo served well in the tiebreak and secured the first set. After that, in the second set, Francisco started well, breaking Rublev´s serve at the beginning of the set. Cerundolo stayed calm after that and won the set 6-4. It was a tight match in the end, as we predicted. This will be his first final of the season. After the final, Cerundolo needs to fly to Paris, as he is competing in the Olympic Games.
Lorenzo Musetti has won four of his last five matches. The last match he played before ATP Umag was at Wimbledon where he lost in the semifinals against Novak Djokovic in straight sets. Musetti took some time off to get rested for the second part of the season. Here in Umag, Lorenzo won his first round match against Trungelliti in straight sets. Lorenzo was 0-3 down in the first set, but managed to step up his level and turn the set around. In the second set, Musetti won his service games easily and closed out the match without any problems. In the quarterfinals, Lorenzo won against Lajovic, after he was set down. Dusan looked tired in the deciding set, and Musetti played extraordinary tennis, winning the set 6-0. In the semifinals, Musetti won against Mensik in straight sets. In the first set, Musetti lost his serve, but managed to break back right afterward. After that, it was a one-sided match. So far this season, Musetti has not have any remarkable results on clay. Last time he played in Umag was in 2022, where he lost in the 1/8-Finals against Cecchinato in straight sets. Musetti is also participating in the Olympic Games, so he will need to fly to Paris right after his final match.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Musetti is the slight favorite in this matchup. Looking at the head-to-head meetings, Musetti won both matches on clay against Cerundolo. Lorenzo usually underperforming in the big matches such as this one. We saw it at this year’s Wimbledon as well. Cerundolo is more reliable when playing on the biggest stage. We believe that his experience, and his nerves will prevail in this match.
That being said, Cerundolo winning is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Francisco Cerundolo winning @2.30 @bet365
Main Photo Credit: David Kirouac-USA TODAY Sports
