With the Paris Olympics played on clay at the famed Roland Garros, a specialized crop of clay courters leads the pack in the hunt for a Gold Medal. At the top of the list is the World No. 1 Iga Swiatek, winner of four Major titles, three of them earned on the terre battue of Paris. And, by a very large margin, the favorite to win Gold. But in a game of matchups and upsets, anything can happen. So let’s look at the top five favorites.
Top 5 Favorites for Olympic Gold in Women’s Singles
Iga Swiatek
As current World No. 1 and three-time champion at Roland Garros, Iga Swiatek (Poland) is the leading favorite to win the Gold Medal. During this season’s clay swing, Swiatek won an incredible 95% of the matches she played, losing only once to Elena Rybakina (Kazakstan), on an indoor court in Stuttgart.
Even with Rybakina withdrawing from the Paris Olympics, Swiatek will need to navigate a tricky draw that includes the likes of Linda Noskova (Czech Republic), Diane Parry (France), and Diana Shnaider (Individual Neutral Athletes) as potential second round and third round opponents. Jelena Ostapenko (Latvia), a player with an undefeated record against Swiatek, is a potential quarterfinal opponent.
At the Tokyo Olympics, which were played on hard courts, Swiatek fell in the second round to Paula Badosa (Spain), shedding tears of disappointment as she left the court. Expect her to be laser-focused playing her second Olympics–this time on her favorite surface.
Coco Gauff
Coco Gauff (USA) has excelled on clay from an early age and, like Iga Swiatek, she has a bevy of good memories to draw on going into Olympic competition on the courts at Roland Garros. Gauff won the girls’ title here in 2018, and made the French Open quarterfinals in 2021 and 2023, and reached the finals in 2022. This year she reached the semifinals at the French and lifted the doubles title.
Unfortunately for Gauff, many of her losses on clay have come at the hands of Swiatek, her biggest rival on the surface. If the seedings hold, she’s destined to face Swiatek in the final.
Over the past year, Gauff has improved her shot tolerance and patience in long rallies, and has found ways to win even on bad days. These are improvements that will boost her confidence as she moves through the draw against potential third round opponent Bianca Andreescu (Canada), and potential quarterfinal opponents Maria Sakkari (Greece) and Julia Putinseva (Kazakstan). Fellow American and doubles partner Jessica Pegula could be across the net in the semifinals.
Gauff has made no secret of her desire to medal in Paris and perhaps facing Swiatek with an Olympic Gold Medal on the line will provide the extra incentive she needs to defeat her biggest clay court rival.
Jasmine Paolini
Coming off of back-to-back final appearances at the French Open and Wimbledon, Jasmine Paolini (Italy) is arguably the hottest player on the women’s tour at the moment. She’s posted numerous firsts in the past two months–first Italian woman to play in the Wimbledon finals, first woman since Serena Williams in 2016 to play the French Open and Wimbledon final back-to-back, just to name two. Now she has an opportunity to post another: first Italian woman to win an Olympic Gold medal in tennis.
Paolini is not only brimming with confidence, she has an arsenal of weapons that make her a nightmare opponent on the clay–agile movement, quickness around the court and a devastating forehand. She’s grown up playing on the surface and knows how to build the point and use angles and spins to put her opponents into difficult positions. Her high energy and positive attitude make her a force to be reckoned with.
After her loss in the final of the French Open to Iga Swiatek she didn’t fade; instead, she built on that experience. Expect her to do the same at the Olympics, where she’ll have a second chance at victory on the courts at Roland Garros in less than two months.
Danielle Collins
Behind Iga Swiatek, Danielle Collins (USA) has the next highest win rate on clay this season, prevailing in 80% of the matches she’s played. In what will be her last year on tour, Collins has found another gear, winning in Miami and Charleston, and rising 46 spots in the rankings to World No. 9.
She also thrives in a team atmosphere, a skill honed while playing for the University of Virginia. In a recent interview with UVA Today, Collins spoke about competing as part of a team, in the Olympics.
“It’s a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity,” Collins said. “And it is one of the highest honors you can receive as an athlete, playing for your country. I love being on a team, and it has always been a goal of mine to be an Olympian. So it really means a lot.”
Time and time again, Collins has shown she plays her best tennis with her back against the wall. Expect her to dig deep and make the most of her first, and last, Olympic appearance for Team USA.
Jelena Ostapenko
Though favorite may be a bit of a stretch, you can’t count out Jelena Ostapenko, another player who has had success on the courts of Roland Garros. The 2017 French Open champion runs hot and cold, but if the stars align she is capable of overpowering every player in the draw.
Over the past 18 months, she’s found coaching stability and more consistency in her game. She played seemingly effortless tennis to reach the quarterfinals at Wimbledon a few weeks ago and has won two titles in 2024. She’s also the only player in the Olympic draw with an undefeated record against Iga Swiatek. As it goes when talking about Ostapenko – anything is possible, even Olympic Gold.
Main Photo Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports
