We are in for a blockbuster men’s semifinal at Wimbledon, a rematch of last year’s battle–which wasn’t so close. Will Daniil Medvedev perform better this year? Or will Carlos Alcaraz romp to his second consecutive Wimbledon final? Our writers share their thoughts on the match. Predicting this match are Andreas Pelekis, Shane Black, Jordan Reynolds, and Yesh Ginsburg. Who do you think will win? We also have predictions for the other semifinal–between Novak Djokovic and Lorenzo Musett–in a separate article.
Wimbledon Men’s Semifinal Prediction
Carlos Alcaraz vs Daniil Medvedev
Andreas:
A small tweak of footwork on the grass has significantly helped Medvedev during this grass-court season. Standing closer to the baseline, he’s been able to play more aggressive tennis and create even more challenging angles — this was fully on display during the Russian’s five-set win over Jannik Sinner on Tuesday. If he can move Alcaraz into uncomfortable court positions with his controlled aggression, he may be the favorite. This happened during Medvedev’s four-set win over Alcaraz at the US Open last summer.
But Alcaraz is known to step up his game in big moments, and he’ll be especially motivated to do well here as he tries to defend his Wimbledon title. He also has the stronger drop shot and finesse of the two players, something that often troubles Medvedev. The Spaniard will have to counter Medvedev’s big serve and use his powerful forehand to his advantage. In the end, the defending champion may reach an extra gear to win this match.
Prediction: Alcaraz in 5
Shane:
Alcaraz absolutely wallopped Medvedev in this position a year ago. That said, Medvedev is coming off a win over the best player in the world and has found a way to thrive on a surface that does not necessarily suit his game. If Alcaraz can serve well, he’ll be tough to beat. My gut says the Russian finds a way, though.
Prediction: Medvedev in 5
Jordan:
Alcaraz easily swept Medvedev aside in the semifinal last year. Although Medvedev is certainly playing the best grass-court tennis of his career right now, he will need to serve excellently to have a chance. Unlike Jannik Sinner in the last round, Alcaraz possesses the variety on grass to throw Medvedev off his game. It would be wrong to completely rule the Russian out, but Alcaraz is a really tough matchup for him, especially on grass and clay.
Prediction: Alcaraz in 3
Yesh:
Nothing about Daniil Medvedev’s game should work on grass. He treats it like the slowest court in the world, but hits with a relentless depth that can frustrate anyone, at any time. The way he consistently outworked Jannik Sinner in the quarter was a wonder to behold. As long as he can keep his emotions and nerves in check (he handed away that first set against Sinner), he should be able to do the same to Alcaraz.
Prediction: Medvedev in 4
Main Photo Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports
