ATP Wimbledon semifinals
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Vekic – Paolini: 11.07.2024 14:00 CEST
H2H: 1-2
Donna Vekic has won five straight matches. Two weeks ago, Vekic played in the final of the WTA Bad Homburg. She lost against Shnaider in three tight sets. Here at Wimbledon, Donna won her first round match, after she was 0-1 down against Wang Yi. After that, in the second round, Vekic dominated against Erika Andreeva and won the match in straight sets. Donna was great on return, securing 15 breakpoints. In the third round, Donna defeated Yastremska in three sets. After two tiebreaks, Donna was great in the deciding set, which she won 6-1. After that, in the 1/8-Finals, Donna defeated Badosa in three sets. It was overall a very quality match for both players. Vekic reached the quarterfinals at Wimbledon for the first time. She got lucky with the draw, and faced Lulu Sun in the quarterfinals. Donna lost the first set 5-7. In the second set, Vekic had a chance to serve out the set, but made five double faults and lost her serve. However, she immediately broke back, and won the set 6-4. In the deciding set, Donna was dominant from the very start as we predicted, and won the set 6-1. Last year at Wimbledon, Donna lost in the third round against Vondrousova.
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Jasmine Paolini has won five straight matches. Two weeks ago in Eastbourne, Paolini reached the semifinals where she lost against Kasatkina in three tight sets. She has won the first three rounds in straight sets. In the first round, Paolini defeated Sorribes Tormo in two tight sets. Jasmine struggled in the first set, but managed to stay calm and win the set 7-5. In her second round match, Paolini struggled yet again in the first set, but was yet again great under pressure by winning the set 7-6. After that, in the third round, Jasmine won the first set against Andreescu yet again 7-6. Her biggest challenge was in the 1/8-Finals against Keys. Paolini was 2-5 down in the deciding set. Keys got injured late in the third set, and just could not finish the match. Jasmine won three consecutive games when Keys decided to retire at 5-5 in the deciding set. Her quarterfinal match against Navarro was her best match so far in the tournament. Jasmine won the match 6-2 6-1. After she lost her serve in the first set, Paolini won five straight games and won the first set 6-2. Last year at Wimbledon, Paolini lost in the first round against Kvitova in three tight sets. She never had any remarkable results on grass.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Vekic is the underdog in this matchup. Paolini is in great form, so that is the main reason why she is the favorite in this match. However, we believe that Donna is a better grass court player than Paolini. Vekic has a huge serve and a big forehand, so we believe that she will keep this match tight.
That being said, Vekic covering the games handicap is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Donna Vekic +2.5 games handicap @1.91 @bet365
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Main Photo Credit: David Kirouac-USA TODAY Sports
