ATP Wimbledon quarterfinals
Alcaraz – Paul: 09.07.2024 15:30 CEST
H2H: 2-2
Carlos Alcaraz has won four of his last five matches. Two weeks ago in London, Carlos was defeated by Jack Draper in the 1/8-Finals. Here at Wimbledon, Alcaraz won his first round match against Lajal in tight straight sets as we predicted. Alcaraz could not find his rhythm, and was just struggling with his tennis. After that, Carlos defeated Vukic in the second round in straight sets as well. Alcaraz lost his serve twice in the first set, but still turned the set around and won through the tiebreak. In the second and third sets, Carlos was a way better player on the court, winning both sets 6-2. After that, in the third round, Carlos had it tough against Tiafoe as we predicted. After around 2:30 hours on the court, Alcaraz was 1-2 down. Both players have played great tennis, but Alcaraz was the better player under pressure and won the fourth set through the tiebreak. Tiafoe was tired in the fifth set, and Alcaraz was just pushing him to the limit. Yesterday, in the 1/8-Finals, Alcaraz defeated Humbert in four sets. Besides losing the third set 1-6, Carlos has shown why he is the biggest favorite and defending champion here in London. Last year at Wimbledon, Carlos played his best tennis. En route to the title, Alcaraz won against Berrettini, Rune, Medvedev, Djokovic and some other great players.
Tommy Paul has won eight straight matches. Last week in London, Paul won the tournament, winning against Musetti in straight sets as we predicted. Here at Wimbledon, Tommy won his first round match against Pablo Martinez in four sets. Paul served great up until the third set well, which he lost. In the second round, Paul won the match against Virtanen in five tough sets as we predicted. Tommy was 1-2 down, but found his way back and won the match in the end. Those were also his toughest matches so far in the tournament. Alexander Bublik had no chance against Tommy in the third round. Paul offered, and saved only one breakpoint. He ended up winning the match in straight sets, hitting 37 winners with only 14 unforced errors. In the 1/8-Finals, Tommy was the clear favorite against the veteran, Bautista-Agut. Paul won the match in straight sets. Bautista showed great effort in the third set, but Paul was hitting the ball way better, and turned the set around. So far in 2024, Paul has won ten out of eleven grass court matches. Last year at Wimbledon, Paul reached the third round where he lost against Lehecka in five sets.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Alcaraz is the big favorite in this matchup. Looking at his previous matches, Carlos tends to lose his momentum. We believe that Paul is a very solid grass court player, and that he will convert his chances. Tommy has already won twice against Alcaraz, and we believe that he will keep this match tight.
That being said, Paul covering the games handicap is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Tommy Paul -5.5 games handicap @1.80 @bet365
Main Photo Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports
