ATP 500 Queen’s final
Paul – Musetti: 23.06.2024 15:00 CEST
H2H: first meeting
Tommy Paul has won four of his last five matches. Last week, Paul reached the quarterfinals in Hertogenbosch where he lost against Sebastian Korda in straight sets. Here in London, Paul won his first round match against Sebastian Baez in straight sets. It was overall a low-quality match. Paul offered 8 breakpoints, but managed to save 7 of them. After that, Paul defeated Alejandro Tabilo in two solid sets. This time, Tommy saved both breakpoints, and played great under pressure. In the quarterfinals, Paul defeated Jack Draper in three tight sets. Draper looked tired in the third set, and Paul served very well. Today, in the semifinals, Korda stood no chance against Paul. Tommy had the chance to close the match earlier, but he lost his serve at 5-3 in the second set. However, he stayed calm and closed the match in straight sets as we predicted. Last year in London, Paul lost against Francisco Cerundolo in the first round. Just one week after that, Cerundolo lost in the Eastbourne final yet again against Cerundolo. This will be another opportunity for Paul to claim his first grass court title. This will also be his third title match of the season. Earlier this season, Paul lifted the trophy in Dallas, and finished as the runner-up in Delray Beach.
Lorenzo Musetti has won four of his last five matches. Last week in Stuttgart, Lorenzo reached the semifinals where he lost against Matteo Berrettini in straight sets. En route to the semifinals, Lorenzo had some solid wins. Here in London, Lorenzo upset Alex de Minaur in the first round in straight sets. In the second round, Musetti defeated Nakashima in three tight sets. After that, Musetti had a great performance against Harris in the quarterfinals, winning in straight sets as we predicted. Today, in the semifinals, Thompson fought hard, but just was not good enough for Musetti. Lorenzo won the match in three sets, hitting 27 winners with 14 unforced errors. Musetti is well known for his performances on clay. However, he said that he feels comfortable on grass as well, which we saw this week as well. Lorenzo won both of his championship matches in his career. He is experienced, and knows how to play in the finals. Last year in London, Musetti lost in the quarterfinals against Holger Rune.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Musetti is a slight underdog in this matchup. Considering that this is his least favorite surface, we can understand and agree with that. En route to the final, Paul defeated better grass court players than Lorenzo did. Tommy loves to play fast and aggressive tennis, which fits this surface perfectly. We believe that he will play aggressively from the very start. Musetti has also spent more time on the court in the semifinals, which might be crucial in the final.
That being said, Paul covering the games handicap is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Tommy Paul -3.5 games handicap @2.00 @bet365
Main Photo Credit: Mike Frey-USA TODAY Sports
